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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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looks like it'd make landfall around Savannah or maybe Hilton Head

Entire coast from Miami up gets raked
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
If the trend to the east continue may be a OTS storm crossing fingers!!
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I'm still not sure about OTS. The ridge is building in from the west fast overhead and stronger too. That would prevent OTS. OBX I would say is a farthest east at the moment, unfortunately. We need the other models before drawing conclusions about 12z.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm still not sure about OTS. The ridge is building in from the west fast overhead and stronger too. That would prevent OTS. OBX I would say is a farthest east at the moment, unfortunately. We need the other models before drawing conclusions about 12z.
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Agreed if Euro trends east then it may be onto something.... CMC cruising thru Cuba, model madness
 
It could be one of those situation were Irma hits Fl runs just enough when a strong ridge builds in forces back towards a west/ wnw? This run has central/north bama into little action
 
So if this scenario were to play out with the cad in place as Irma plows into that, would the wedge enhance the tornado threat (along the boundary), mitigate it or basically have no effect.
 
metwannabe said:
So if this scenario were to play out with the cad in place as Irma plows into that, would the wedge enhance the tornado threat (along the boundary), mitigate it or basically have no effect.
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It almost looks like Irma destroys the wedge and pushes it west and east, then pushes it's cooler air around it. I would say it would be a very high risk.
 
12Z GFS would indicate some inland issues in the upstate/southern mountains as well.
 
LOL at the people essentially wishcasting this thing in to their backyard. One of the worst operational models is being took to the bank because its what people want to see. The Euro isnt named the King for nothing.
 
For a FYI: In which nobody cares, The 12z CMC came further east with track still in eastern GOM but came east this is the kind of trends I look @ when models are far out!
 
DadOfJax said:
LOL at the people essentially wishcasting this thing in to their backyard. One of the worst operational models is being took to the bank because its what people want to see. The Euro isnt named the King for nothing.
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No It isn't, but the euro has been terrible in the short range this year. When this gets closer to Cuba, we can start to throw the global models out IMO. The HWRF and HMON should be given more weight then and now too.
 
DadOfJax said:
LOL at the people essentially wishcasting this thing in to their backyard. One of the worst operational models is being took to the bank because its what people want to see. The Euro isnt named the King for nothing.
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On here or other forms of social media/forums? I'm not seeing wishcasting on here only people stating what a model is showing....
 
ForsythSnow said:
No It isn't, but the euro has been terrible in the short range this year. When this gets closer to Cuba, we can start to throw the global models out IMO. The HWRF and HMON should be given more weight then and now too.
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I agree, this close to home the Op models are not as reliable for direction like the short range models are. Thats my take
 
The Nam should be looked at here soon as we enter closer in time
 
12z CMC is a Macon special
2271230ad0e5bbb38a634cde184515c1.jpg


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CMC west gfs east. Ensembles split the middle which is a Florida landfall . I bet thats what we see with the Euro

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