RollTide18
Member
12z GEFS
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That's 3 too many members in the Gulf
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
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That's 3 too many members in the Gulf
WeatherWatch
Member
If the GFS continues to show a sub 900mb 1-2 days before Irma makes landfall, I'm certainly that it's possible that Irma could indeed fall down to a sub 900mb.
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whatalife
Moderator
pcbjr
Member
Doubt the entire peninsula would need evacuation.
Here's a link to Fla Canes - and very few have run the peninsula.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/one-hundred-years-of-hurricanes/
But if the peninsula were to take a hit by something this powerful, at least I know the backroads ...
GeorgiaGirl
Member
12z GEFS
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Not good man, not good at all...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
HWRF thinks Irma will become a 125 knot category 4 hurricane by tomorrow morning...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
While definitely impressive it's not all that outlandish given Irma's small size....
NOOOOO!. On another note, look at the mean for the 500mb level. The ridged fully connect, hence the FL, GA, SC, and NC landfalls.
Yeah OTS is pretty much off the table.
And look what is sitting just to the north of Irma12z GEFS
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That’s almost a look of a very rare GA hitNOOOOO!. On another note, look at the mean for the 500mb level. The ridged fully connect, hence the FL, GA, SC, and NC landfalls.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah right... I don't think I have ever seen 202 knots modeled for the 850 mb level on this storm. 232 mph is unrelaistic. Wonder if a plane could even fly in those winds well.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not quite yet but if this goes OTS it's going to be painfully slow in doing so and its feasible this could challenge the all time record for individual storm ACE for an Atlantic tropical cyclone if it somehow remains well offshore the entire time...
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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Its crazy to know the category intensity is lower now then they use to.when Ivan hit us in Pcola it hit as a cat 3 with winds up to 130 mph. But now a cat 4 is 125? When did this change?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
2 landfalls for GA on this run, both Savannah head on. The rest are SC or NC, or FL.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Cat 4 is 130 now, and was 135 a few years ago.
Oh I agree, just pretty much a remark based on the dwindling possibility due to support of the ridge building overtop.
skywatcher
Member
Check a knot to mph conversion calculator.
"HWRF thinks Irma will become a 125 knot category 4 hurricane by tomorrow morning..."
WeatherWatch
Member
New 12z GFS ENS spaghetti plot
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2 landfalls for GA on this run, both Savannah head on. The rest are SC or NC, or FL.
Much more support for high end Cat 4/ Cat 5 at landfall.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Irma doesn't seem to be looking good at the moment. Seems to be another ERC starting. Dvorak values also are falling, so therefore it is likely another ERC.
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