Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[ForsythSnow]

Pressure dropping again. 927 mb from the last pass. She may make a run for the record.

 

[RBR71]

I certainly think it could get stronger in the Bahamas ***IF*** it avoids land and times its ERC's correctly or at least make another run at what it is now

I mean nobody expected 180 mph this morning

Most likely between now and then it'll fluctuate... they usually don't stay at a 5 for more than a day or two and then they weaken through ERC's or what not and may become a 5 again down the road. A few have done it 3 times like Ivan and Isabel and Allen

Pressure has dropped since the 11am advisory so from a pressure stand point it's still strengthening now will the winds respond

 

[boobear]

Is that a 3rd storm forming behind Jose or is that just part of Jose?

 

[RBR71]

Pressure dropping again. 927 mb from the last pass. She may make a run for the record.

You and I got to stop posting at the same time.... Lol but yeah I'm with you this may be about to make a run at history

 

[Brent]

190 is the record

 

[ForsythSnow]

You and I got to stop posting at the same time.... Lol but yeah I'm with you this may be about to make a run at history

Lol. The only thing I am wondering is why the flight level winds are lower than the surface. That is questionable.

 

[noda-wx]

190 is the record

Hurricane Allen = 190mph wind record for atlantic basin
Hurricane Wilma = 882mb pressure record for the atlantic basin

(since I'm sure it will be asked)

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Thru 54 little S and slower so far vs 0z


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[Brent]

yeah the pressure ain't going down anytime soon, maybe if it can do this again approaching the Keys

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Per 12z GFS, The slower the better for FL but worse for Carolinas as turn will be maybe before FL!!

 

[accu35]

This is prob eas again

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Yeah an early observation is the Bermuda high has trended slightly weaker since 00z.

 

[Brent]

I think this about says it all on tropical tidbits

September 5: Due to abnormally high traffic, soundings have been temporarily disabled to keep the server alive

 

[ForsythSnow]

I think this about says it all on tropical tidbits

September 5: Due to abnormally high traffic, soundings have been temporarily disabled to keep the server alive

Just another reason Levi needs some donations too! If you can donate to him as well, please do so!

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Thru 84 pretty much on the 0z track


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[Cary_Snow95]

Thru 84 pretty much on the 0z track


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I respectfully disagree. 12z is east of 0z and the trough is deeper. 6z was east of 0z and 12z is east of 06z

 

[RBR71]

Thru 84 pretty much on the 0z track


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Honestly not to dissimilar from the 06z run thru 84, I think it's after this point it started to diverge... we will know shortly

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Honestly not to dissimilar from the 06z run thru 84, I think it's after this point it started to diverge... we will know shortly

Yeah exactly my thoughts. The trough is a touch deeper than 6z. Guess we will see what effect that has

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Seems to be turning at 102

 

[ForsythSnow]

Something different this run. There seems to be a or the shortwave already in central Alabama/Mississippi at 102.

 

[accu35]

Seems to be turning at 102

it does then a west wobble lol

 

[RBR71]

0z, 06z and 12z thru 102

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[BHS1975]

Are there any good examples of the gfs out performing the euro on tracking?


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[Cary_Snow95]

Look at the NE feature at 0z and now at 12z
0z

12z

 

[RBR71]

^^^Biggest difference I see is Jose further south... also looks like 12z splitting the difference between 0z and 06z with Irma

 

[Brent]

looks like she might try to stay east of FL barely on the GFS?

 

[BHS1975]

How could it not go ots with that gaping hole in the ridge?


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[RBR71]

looks like she might try to stay east of FL barely on the GFS?

Yeah @120 it certainly is..... could this thing still go ots and miss the US, wow what a blessing that would be

 

[accu35]

I think a east trend maybe trying to start

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I think a east trend maybe trying to start

Yeah 12z is east of 06z for sure now. Really curious if the ridge noses back in or if this thing can escape

 

[RBR71]

How could it not go ots with that gaping hole in the ridge?


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I think the problem is the ridge building in behind the trough and bridging to the atlantic ridge closing that hole..[/QUOTE]

 

[accu35]

Ready for all this to be over, so we can move on with fall

 

[Brent]

this run like rakes the entire FL coast with the western eyewall of a Cat 4+

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[RBR71]

And IF this occurs that ridge is building back over the top very problematic

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This isn't going OTS. Ridge is building in. Might be Carolina bound

 

[SD]

lagging trough and an earlier fracture in the ridge means more N component to the movement sooner. The problem then becomes either a slow trek up the eastern seaboard or an acceleration as it pinwheels in the trough. Both solutions bring their own suck

 

[WeatherWatch]

Nah, no OTS, it's looking like Irma will make landfall over GA/SC and then push of to the WNW or NW. Just a guess.

 

[Brent]

even in the western eyewall still Cat 5 gusts on the FL coast this run

 

[Flo]

So you think it skirts up the Florida coast and goes inland in GA/SC?