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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Webberweather53 said:
Irma has definitely made a non-negligible wobble to the west the past few hours, circulation back up to about 18N again.
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So is it straight west motion?
 
GaWx said:
The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward.
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^I'm embarrassed to say that I erred badly. I thought that the boxes were the standard 5 degrees x 5 degrees. But I now see the latitude intervals of the boxes are only 3 degrees even though the longitudes are 5 degrees. So, the quoted post is flat out wrong. I apologize. This is definitely embarrassing.

So, I thought the top of the box I was analyzing was at 20 N. But the top is at 18 N rather than 20 N. So, with that correction, I can say that the 11 AM NHC position of 17.7 N, 48.4 W, is actually very near the 0Z EPS mean. Furthermore, IF the current westerly movement is more than just a wobble, Irma may actually be heading north of the 0Z EPS mean. Again, sorry about my error.
 
GaWx said:
^I'm embarrassed to say that I erred badly. I thought that the boxes were the standard 5 degrees x 5 degrees. But I now see the latitude intervals of the boxes are only 3 degrees even though the longitudes are 5 degrees. So, the quoted post is flat out wrong. I apologize. This is definitely embarrassing.

So, I thought the top of the box I was analyzing was at 20 N. But the top is at 18 N rather than 20 N. So, with that correction, I can say that the 11 AM NHC position of 17.7 N, 48.4 W, is actually very near the 0Z EPS mean. Furthermore, IF the current westerly movement is more than just a wobble, Irma may actually be heading north of the 0Z EPS mean. Again, sorry about my error.
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Larry,
It takes a big person to admit an error. You're already at the top rung of the ladder; I'm headed to Home Depot to get a taller one for you!
Phil

PS - This thing is a bit unnerving, regardless of exactly where she sits right now ...
 
GaWx said:
^I'm embarrassed to say that I erred badly. I thought that the boxes were the standard 5 degrees x 5 degrees. But I now see the latitude intervals of the boxes are only 3 degrees even though the longitudes are 5 degrees. So, the quoted post is flat out wrong. I apologize. This is definitely embarrassing.

So, I thought the top of the box I was analyzing was at 20 N. But the top is at 18 N rather than 20 N. So, with that correction, I can say that the 11 AM NHC position of 17.7 N, 48.4 W, is actually very near the 0Z EPS mean. Furthermore, IF the current westerly movement is more than just a wobble, Irma may actually be heading north of the 0Z EPS mean. Again, sorry about my error.
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No need to be embarrassed. You contribute so much to this forum and nobody is perfect !
 
If this does end up affecting the FL peninsula I don't see how they're going to evacuate the entire state of FL, that said I think this is going to affect the Carolinas.

I really hope it doesn't but it looks like OTS isn't likely now...
 
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