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Severe 3/24-3/26 possible severe wx

Myfrotho704_ said:
I mean last week kinda did, I think last week people were expecting several wedge tornadoes and EF5s to hit homes and cities, and I guess since it didn’t, it was a bust, but the 45% area verified in AL, some of the FB posts are downright ------ stupid towards spann
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as far as number of tornadoes, yes, but I believe that is largely a function of increased surveying capabilities, etc. The system didn't produce a tornado greater than EF2 and the outbreak was virtually non existent in MS where the 'bullseye' of the high risk was placed. I would go on to say that a high risk predicated on strong violent long track tornadoes not producing such would be considered somewhat of a not living up to its potential.
 
JimRussell said:
last week I never really bought the hype. This system look far more concerning. Only problem is that the public is going to be somewhat complacent due to last weeks system not living up to it's broadcasted potential
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Despite the tornadoes being on the weaker end of the scale, last week was the 6th largest Tornado outbreak in Alabama history, didn't seem like it but last week was significant.
 
Last week was definitely a bust in Mississippi though. The initial high risk was mostly for MS and they barely had any tornadoes while in a 30% hatched high risk
 
12k nam looked rough with the scattered cells kicking along with Ms/Al border rolling north. I'm curious to just how linear the stuff farther west in Ms gets
 
Also, while “technically” not a bust from a numbers standpoint, I think any honest met is going to tell you that last week’s storm way underperformed from an overall forecast, potential, and impact perspective. I’m glad. I hope the same thing happens tomorrow.
 
Sure would be something to have another high risk within about a week from the last one. Sadly, severe weather season is just getting started.
 
NWTENN said:
When is this thing going high risk? Seems to be headed that way.
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Probably 2am tommorow in the next update I imagine. Or atleast I think 2 am is when they update. Don't see reason why high risk wouldn't be issued at this point
 
Parameters are crazy for tomorrow and hrrr shows a very dangerous situation. Even if too many storms fire and congeal there will still be strong tors within those storm complexes. Yes, many discrete cells would be worst case scenario but those QLCS type embedded tors are just as dangerous. I personally think there will be a some sups but I believe there will be a lot of QLCS-esque tornadoes.
 
DAMN SON!!!

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Hrrrr also moves some of those cape perimeters into the Carolinas. Likely to aggressive but something to watch


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Both WRFs say they will have to shift the risk much more into AL. They also have come in with much better directional shear.
 

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Like any event this does have some bust potential. Instability and like what has been alluded to "crapvection." Not that you can't get sig tornadoes with no sun. It's a double edge sword. In some cases you want to see this system bust. But if it happens again, the public is going to stop paying attention to SPC outlooks and forecasts in general.
 
Both WRF focus on the boundary across north central AL. That is a very dangerous place to be tomorrow if it verified.

Edit: This one actually needs a high risk.
 

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Thats about as stern of words I've ever heard from arcc. Is that location really that bad looking tommorow?
Arcc said:
Both WRF focus on the boundary across north central AL. That is a very dangerous place to be tomorrow if it verified.

Edit: This one actually needs a high risk.
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