End of the 18z HRRR was impressive for western Al and a good part of MS. Looked like it cleared the initial batch of convection sooner too
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Severe 3/24-3/26 possible severe wx
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather
HSVweather
Member
00Z HRRR looking pretty rough in MS and AL
HSVweather
Member
HRRR went crazy with SCP and STP
This is once in a decade type parameters, no lack of low level shear, perfect environmental conditions for significant tornadoes, but as usual storm mode dictates that 
When the sim reflectivity tries to make every cell look like a supercell 
50kt+ LLJ at 18z...... 
I honestly don't remember that event
That 3km run ?
mydoortotheworld
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yep that was insane at the time.
Good thread.
That looks like a wicked QLCS.
Edit: Looking through the models, the 12z Euro looked pretty serious. I’ll have to spend time digging into this one.
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Weren't people bringing up April 2011 as the last system?
People were, but last system had weaker low level shear and smaller low level Hodographs which is why I didn’t buy on to a 4/27/11 type setup
VegasEagle
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
I’ve already stayed up for more SPC updates this spring than I did for late night Euro runs all last winter!
RebelBearLandshark
Member
Do not look at the 06z HRRR ... the parameters ... good god an upgrade to a high risk looks to be an easy bet
HSVweather
Member
HSVweather
Member
Any thoughts on the potential fails mentioned in this
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Zander98al
Guest
Mr. Arcc said EHI is better than using sig tornado parameters and supercell composites I'f I can remember it correctly. Those maps (sig and supercell) get contaminated easily I think
HSVweather
Member
Thanks
He is correct. Lots of forcing, fairly unidirectional wind profile and practically no capping across the warm sector probably means you see a huge load of storms initiated. Pretty much exactly as Myfrotho704 said. The HRRR is showing this as well. A few of these will probably isolate enough to become dangerous. Everything will probably congeal into a very nasty qlcs witch will produce tornadoes which could be strong.
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Both of those parameters are fine, you just have watch out for contamination when using the CAMs. I can’t remember for sure, but I think EHI can also be the same. The 12km NAM is much better for these parameters because it isn’t convection allowing and shows the “base” parameters. In this instance the NAM shows Sigtor at 6-7 which is really high, but not the 10+ the CAMs show from contamination.
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Zander98al
Guest
All eyes on the 12z HRRR ?modernweenie
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Zander98al
Guest
This is the 06z hrrr here lots of beans on the radar. Still waiting for 12z hrrr. 
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Zander98al
Guest
12z hrrr looks like a nightmare. 
Jessy89
Member
Hrrrr even goes bonkers in upstate sc not really believing that just yet
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah, this is spicier than I'd like.
Think there's a chance we get so many cells firing that they all kinda gel together?
JimRussell
Member
last week I never really bought the hype. This system look far more concerning. Only problem is that the public is going to be somewhat complacent due to last weeks system not living up to it's broadcasted potential
I mean last week kinda did, I think last week people were expecting several wedge tornadoes and EF5s to hit homes and cities, and I guess since it didn’t, it was a bust, but the 45% area verified in AL, some of the FB posts are downright ------ stupid towards spann
Probably gonna get a lot of multicells with embedded supercells and a QLCS