Severe 3/24-3/26 possible severe wx

[Jessy89]

Maybe some storms in SC/GA from the left over front that gets washed out but we’d need to see some big changes for a legit threat to come back, however the look for LA/MS/AR is problematic

I think with the western Carolinas NE Georgia. What you may get is a few isolated severe thunderstorm warnings along the line Thursday night. With 1-2 inches of rain. But I don’t expect any widespread severe weather.


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[Myfrotho704_]

Models still look nasty for LA/MS/AR lol, lack of talk about it is shocking

 

[HSVweather]

Models still look nasty for LA/MS/AR lol, lack of talk about it is shocking

I’m checking this thread as time allows, not much I can add to create value. It does look nasty but looks to stay south of north Alabama at this time.

 

[GaWx]

Models still look nasty for LA/MS/AR lol, lack of talk about it is shocking

Not many active members live there. I know of only one in each of LA and AR. And I can’t even remember who is active in MS. Since most members concentrate on IMBY, that’s why it is quiet imo.

I do a good bit more than IMBY but don’t follow severe soundings and parameters closely enough to be able to contribute.

 

[Mitch West]

Keep adding info @Myfrotho704_ , I take in a lot of knowledge from your post. Out of all my knowledge on weather, Severe weather is probably the subject I can improve on the most. So I appreciate your input in here.

 

[ryan1234]

I think with the western Carolinas NE Georgia. What you may get is a few isolated severe thunderstorm warnings along the line Thursday night. With 1-2 inches of rain. But I don’t expect any widespread severe weather.


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I highly doubt we get 1-2 inches of rain. In fact, we'd be lucky to get .50. This has and probably will continue to be a dry month. Hoping things become more active in April.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s worth noting that after this, we may need to watch for more severe wx, new GFS shows that as a trough dives in and return flow successfully advects in 60+ dews

 

[SD]

Saturday/Sunday might be the more active days for a larger part of the region

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Saturday/Sunday might be the more active days for a larger part of the region

Yep

 

[SD]

Yep View attachment 79986View attachment 79987View attachment 79988View attachment 79991View attachment 79989View attachment 79990

That Saturday stuff in MS/Al has my attention. Thing is though there's so much going on over the next 5 days it'll be a mess to trying to resolve warm sectors, boundaries and everything else right that far out.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Some nice advection Of steep mid level lapse rates this weekend

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looking at averaged out soundings this weekend on the new GFS/Euro and hail might be a legitimate threat, lots of EML advection

 

[ryan1234]

Finally, a weekend event! Not stuck in the office, I can track from home and hopefully get some pictures. I was about to give up on this week/weekend.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol @SD euro sounding over near your place

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like low level shear really picks up for eastern areas on that second one

 

[SD]

lol @SD euro sounding over near your place View attachment 79995

Solid hailer

 

[Brick Tamland]

I'll be lucky if I hear one rumble of thunder.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Not many active members live there. I know of only one in each of LA and AR. And I can’t even remember who is active in MS. Since most members concentrate on IMBY, that’s why it is quiet imo.

I do a good bit more than IMBY but don’t follow severe soundings and parameters closely enough to be able to contribute.

Folks there are probably lucky to have dial-up service.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Per NAM, that’s a very nasty but messy setup at the same time sounding from Central MS where the best low level wind shear/low level instability, note the very impressive kinematics with plenty of low level shear, but I notice that soundings around where the best helicity/shear has borderline low level lapse rates around 5.8-6.1C (notable outbreaks typically have 6.5+) which is what makes this setup different vs the last one, even areas further south have lackluster low level lapse rates, overall still a solid tornado threat with maybe 1 or more strong ones, but clouds/lackluster low level lapse rates is a limiting factor in this setup per my eyes right now