Wouldn’t surprise me if we deal with more then 1 setup, pretty much all globals hint at another ejecting trough 
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Severe 3/24-3/26 possible severe wx
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather
This setup However screams mess/crapvection everywhere with perhaps a gulf cluster that slows down northward progression of a warm front
There’s also the chance the shortwave washes out as it heads East and loses the forcing with it
Might as well call it quits now
Lol the ukmet
Yeah this would be nasty, LR UK hasn’t been great tho 
So the crapvection would at least be severe since we’re in warm sector? Lol
If the warm front makes it north, then yes, some models brings in storms before it’s over us which would likely slow progression of one moving north, then you have the cmc/v16 lose forcing as it heads East
For your area yea somehow I’ll win and will chase if needed, it’s climo bro !!! Cabarrus > wake
Euro looks nasty for Dixie alley
Didn’t low SRH limit last setup ? Lol
Soundings from southern Mississippi
Soundings from southern Mississippi
LickWx
Member
Didn’t you have your first moderate threat level in history this week lol!
Nope !!! Had one April 2019 !
oh and I had storms to show for the downgrade still, your already taking Ls and it’s only March !
That’s nasty, no shortage of Low level shear/0-1km SRH this go around, but winds aren’t as backed near the sfc 
Yeesh. Not liking what I'm seeing on the 18z GFS.
When you have a ensemble mean that looks like that, your gonna have issues 
Thread I made on twitter
solid look for severe wx wrt the 18z GEFS, nice 200mb double barrel jet aloft with plenty of divergence = forcing for ascent and plenty of it (further East becomes more questionable), also a S/W trough rounding the base of a longwave trough, looking like Moisture return should be no problem given centered ridge around the Caribbean, so there should be enough instability/llvl moisture, should be plenty of shear in the low/mid/upper levels given the S/W that’s rounding the base of the trough, once again this type of setup hastons of forcing, so this setup could easily become full of convection in the warm sector, however the ingredients are there for severe weather and some formidable severe weather at that next week, something to watch as it’s getting under day 7, plenty of time for changes. For areas further east like the Carolinas, it becomes more questionable, the shortwave trough could eject to far west and we get the overall cape/shear but lack forcing, however severe is possible in these areas late next week, also need to watch for a cluster of storms near the Gulf coast that could slow and progression of a warm front given the first system leaving some energy at H5 around the gulf coast, this could cause some bust potential but to early to speculate on mesoscale details, the look synoptically is there right now
solid look for severe wx wrt the 18z GEFS, nice 200mb double barrel jet aloft with plenty of divergence = forcing for ascent and plenty of it (further East becomes more questionable), also a S/W trough rounding the base of a longwave trough, looking like Moisture return should be no problem given centered ridge around the Caribbean, so there should be enough instability/llvl moisture, should be plenty of shear in the low/mid/upper levels given the S/W that’s rounding the base of the trough, once again this type of setup hastons of forcing, so this setup could easily become full of convection in the warm sector, however the ingredients are there for severe weather and some formidable severe weather at that next week, something to watch as it’s getting under day 7, plenty of time for changes. For areas further east like the Carolinas, it becomes more questionable, the shortwave trough could eject to far west and we get the overall cape/shear but lack forcing, however severe is possible in these areas late next week, also need to watch for a cluster of storms near the Gulf coast that could slow and progression of a warm front given the first system leaving some energy at H5 around the gulf coast, this could cause some bust potential but to early to speculate on mesoscale details, the look synoptically is there right now
Geez 
