Jessy89
Member
That’s probably the most aggressive yet for Carolinas!
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Severe 3/24-3/26 possible severe wx
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
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That’s probably the most aggressive yet for Carolinas!
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Quite the slowing trend 
Did Somebody say sum 
Does it have other model support I feel like Gfs on an island
Does any other model support the severe weather?
Many other models show that we get some solid parameters and some sort of low forced Convective stuff in the aft, but I don’t know if there will be enough forcing for our areas the break the EML/cap that comes with it, however for areas down to our SW in MS/AL/LA I’m shocked there wasn’t a 15%, certainly could be some nasty severe down there, but high bust potential given gulf cluster before
njbarrineau
Member
Yeesh! That looks no fun. Also, is it just me or does NWS GSP seem to be a little more upfront with this system than the last one?
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Yeah I was peeping that on the models it definitely looks like they were slowing down and only really impacting western areas of the SE
Bust potential 
But euro still looks nasty 
But euro still looks nasty
The crickets sounds in this thread is surprising given this type of look still popping up, as I’ve said before easy bust potential wrt warm front progression north but shear is more impressive this time 
Western SE folk don’t like talking much ... show some cool fun colors and soundings over the Carolinas and you’ll get a few more pages of content to roll through
Ron Burgundy
Member
FFC has been honking about heavy rain in my point forecast since Saturday. Always gets my attention when they use any kind of severe / extreme weather wording seven days out.
Jessy89
Member
GSP has a hazardous weather outlook for our area mentioning the possibility of severe storms yet their AFD pretty much says no big deal.
I would think isolated severe threat would be there. Mostly a gusty wind threat with the line of storms heavy rain thunder/lightning. Looks like 1-2 inches of rain timing looks to be Thursday night very early Friday morning
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Meh I think this is a threat for Dixie not really areas further east, areas further east basically have no forcing
Maybe some storms in SC/GA from the left over front that gets washed out but we’d need to see some big changes for a legit threat to come back, however the look for LA/MS/AR is problematic
ughh ready to chase in my own backyard.
Yeah I’m ready for May, typically the best month it seems for chasing legit, more photogenic setups the last few years
Jessy89
Member
I think with the western Carolinas NE Georgia. What you may get is a few isolated severe thunderstorm warnings along the line Thursday night. With 1-2 inches of rain. But I don’t expect any widespread severe weather.
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Models still look nasty for LA/MS/AR lol, lack of talk about it is shocking
HSVweather
Member
I’m checking this thread as time allows, not much I can add to create value. It does look nasty but looks to stay south of north Alabama at this time.
Not many active members live there. I know of only one in each of LA and AR. And I can’t even remember who is active in MS. Since most members concentrate on IMBY, that’s why it is quiet imo.
I do a good bit more than IMBY but don’t follow severe soundings and parameters closely enough to be able to contribute.
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Keep adding info @Myfrotho704_ , I take in a lot of knowledge from your post. Out of all my knowledge on weather, Severe weather is probably the subject I can improve on the most. So I appreciate your input in here.
I highly doubt we get 1-2 inches of rain. In fact, we'd be lucky to get .50. This has and probably will continue to be a dry month. Hoping things become more active in April.
It’s worth noting that after this, we may need to watch for more severe wx, new GFS shows that as a trough dives in and return flow successfully advects in 60+ dews
Saturday/Sunday might be the more active days for a larger part of the region
That Saturday stuff in MS/Al has my attention. Thing is though there's so much going on over the next 5 days it'll be a mess to trying to resolve warm sectors, boundaries and everything else right that far out.
Some nice advection Of steep mid level lapse rates this weekend
Looking at averaged out soundings this weekend on the new GFS/Euro and hail might be a legitimate threat, lots of EML advection
Looks like low level shear really picks up for eastern areas on that second one 
Solid hailer
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I'll be lucky if I hear one rumble of thunder.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Folks there are probably lucky to have dial-up service.
Per NAM, that’s a very nasty but messy setup at the same time 
sounding from Central MS where the best low level wind shear/low level instability, note the very impressive kinematics with plenty of low level shear, but I notice that soundings around where the best helicity/shear has borderline low level lapse rates around 5.8-6.1C (notable outbreaks typically have 6.5+) which is what makes this setup different vs the last one, even areas further south have lackluster low level lapse rates, overall still a solid tornado threat with maybe 1 or more strong ones, but clouds/lackluster low level lapse rates is a limiting factor in this setup per my eyes right now 
sounding from Central MS where the best low level wind shear/low level instability, note the very impressive kinematics with plenty of low level shear, but I notice that soundings around where the best helicity/shear has borderline low level lapse rates around 5.8-6.1C (notable outbreaks typically have 6.5+) which is what makes this setup different vs the last one, even areas further south have lackluster low level lapse rates, overall still a solid tornado threat with maybe 1 or more strong ones, but clouds/lackluster low level lapse rates is a limiting factor in this setup per my eyes right now