Here we go, again lol, overall models seem to agree on a system somewhere in the SE capable of producing severe weather, lots of SW flow aloft/divergence in the upper levels ensures forcing/heavy precip/severe possibly 
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Severe 3/24-3/26 possible severe wx
- Thread starter Myfrotho704_
- Start date
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- Tags
- severe weather
From GSP
By Wednesday, models agree on a shortwave trough spurring coastal
cyclogenesis over the remnant cold frontal band leftover from
Tuesday`s system. Aloft, the polar and subtropical jets align
with the midlevel forcing and could result in rapid deepening
of this system. As a result, a renewed possibility for active
weather on Thursday, as the surface low drags another cold front
through our CWA in the afternoon. QPF is much more impressive
for this system, and with both the GFS and the ECMWF demonstrating
moderate SBCAPE and an 850mb jet producing impressive deep layer
shear, both Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon could bring
another opportunity for thunderstorms. It`s much too early to
dig into either the intensity or timing at this point, but by
Friday evening the last of the frontal precip should have abated,
giving way to dry northeasterly flow.
By Wednesday, models agree on a shortwave trough spurring coastal
cyclogenesis over the remnant cold frontal band leftover from
Tuesday`s system. Aloft, the polar and subtropical jets align
with the midlevel forcing and could result in rapid deepening
of this system. As a result, a renewed possibility for active
weather on Thursday, as the surface low drags another cold front
through our CWA in the afternoon. QPF is much more impressive
for this system, and with both the GFS and the ECMWF demonstrating
moderate SBCAPE and an 850mb jet producing impressive deep layer
shear, both Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon could bring
another opportunity for thunderstorms. It`s much too early to
dig into either the intensity or timing at this point, but by
Friday evening the last of the frontal precip should have abated,
giving way to dry northeasterly flow.
Well this is not good.
Where’s this from
Well this is not good.
NoSnowATL
Member
Not telling
Well this is not good.
Holy $hit, that is a scary-looking sounding. That CAPE is insane!
NoSnowATL
Member
Mild rain?
Wind-driven at that
Overall look reminds me of 4/2-4/3 2017, - the SE Canada vortex, although it’s not far
I want it to storm so bad, especially at night... I want a get scared in bed kinda storm.
Nasty 
Take two everyone! Positions!!! Andddddd action!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ugly
LickWx
Member
Hiiiyuckkkkk murder ! I did it ! Guilty !
GSP : As is typical, minor variation between model runs in timing the
shortwave and its interaction with the front lead to wider
differences in the weather impacts and their duration. Euro/Canadian
operational solutions depict the new low spinning up closer to the
Ohio Valley, with instability trends that suggest perhaps a discrete
cell threat Thu afternoon, and more of a QLCS threat early Friday
ahead of the cold front. GFS is further south and depicts more
limited instability mainly Thu aftn/evening. Can`t write off the
heavy rain threat entirely, given PWAT values peaking near 1.5" on
GFS and Euro, but right now the strong and veering flow aloft
suggests fast cell motion and severe threat would probably be more
impactful. Worth watching in both respects.
shortwave and its interaction with the front lead to wider
differences in the weather impacts and their duration. Euro/Canadian
operational solutions depict the new low spinning up closer to the
Ohio Valley, with instability trends that suggest perhaps a discrete
cell threat Thu afternoon, and more of a QLCS threat early Friday
ahead of the cold front. GFS is further south and depicts more
limited instability mainly Thu aftn/evening. Can`t write off the
heavy rain threat entirely, given PWAT values peaking near 1.5" on
GFS and Euro, but right now the strong and veering flow aloft
suggests fast cell motion and severe threat would probably be more
impactful. Worth watching in both respects.
Jessy89
Member
Just a bit to early to tell in the Carolinas! The threat is there because the ingredients are there. Location of the low and timing seems a little uncertain.
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