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Severe 3/24-3/26 possible severe wx

Arcc said:
Both WRF focus on the boundary across north central AL. That is a very dangerous place to be tomorrow if it verified.

Edit: This one actually needs a high risk.
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That’s 3/3/19 wind profiles with way more instability lol and more north
 
ryan1234 said:
Like any event this does have some bust potential. Instability and like what has been alluded to "crapvection." Not that you can't get sig tornadoes with no sun. It's a double edge sword. In some cases you want to see this system bust. But if it happens again, the public is going to stop paying attention to SPC outlooks and forecasts in general.
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This just feels different .. almost feels as if we Overplayed last week not realizing these are the actual conditions that can create long lived tornados and damaging severe storms .. I think this one is the real deal ... all the models have a deadly look with some real scraping supercells .. much more impressive than last weeks models (which were already fairly impressive)
 
Arcc said:
Both WRF focus on the boundary across north central AL. That is a very dangerous place to be tomorrow if it verified.

Edit: This one actually needs a high risk.
Click to expand...

Interesting to see some of those updraft helicities being shown in the Carolina's. Is that for tomorrow night?
 
Euro looks very much like the WRFs. Doesn’t back west 500mbs winds as much, but still very dangerous along the boundary across north AL.
 
I think this one could be more conducive for severe weather west of 77 this go around. This is one I think could sneak up on the upstate and NE GA. Hopefully we just get rain but severe storms and a possible tornado is definitely something to look out for even here.
 
iGRXY said:
I think this one could be more conducive for severe weather west of 77 this go around. This is one I think could sneak up on the upstate and NE GA. Hopefully we just get rain but severe storms and a possible tornado is definitely something to look out for even here.
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Bingo I agree with this the hrrr also hints at conditions favorable for tornadoes after midnight Thursday. I’m not saying this will be like Seneca tornado but it does look a bit similar.


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Kindve expecting in the next outlook. For a big portion of north alabama to be in a high risk. Going off the helicity updraft tracks. Seems like the hackleburg area and nearby locations get the hammer dropped on them a lot.
 
Zander98al said:
Kindve expecting in the next outlook. For a big portion of north alabama to be in a high risk. Going off the helicity updraft tracks. Seems like the hackleburg area and nearby locations get the hammer dropped on them a lot.
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Yeah, not good to have a boundary draped across this area. It’s where the monsters walk.
 
I don't know about the href. But this is a good readhttps://twitter.com/JacobLanierWx/status/1374795379720519685?s=19
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, last easter as a example
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The problem on the other hand is if we apply our SE trend which often happens with the best blend of discrete forcing and the boundary/front not making it far north as modeled; it puts the highest threat from Jackson, MS to BHM to Gadsden.
 
Had full sunshine through 1:30pm. Now a Altocumulus field has developed.

Maybe a good sign for later.
 
I’m worried about the complacency of people this go round, after last weeks ‘bust’?? People will be like we had a high risk last week and only a few tornadoes after all the mega hype! I hope everybody stays safe tomorrow!
 
Whats your forecast for tommorow arcc? On how bad it will . You to myfro guy. seems like this is a big time event. Is this similar to the veterans day outbreak back in 2002 I think?
Arcc said:
Anyone else find it strange that we had a 4/15/11 wannabe system last week and a 4/27/11 wannabe system tomorrow?
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1616617977444.png

Mesoscale Discussion 0242
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 242022Z - 242245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated this evening
across western portions of central and north-central TX. Threat for
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will
accompany this storms as they move northeastward into more of
central and north-central TX. Trends are being monitored for
possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a weak low just
southeast of BWD in central TX. A warm front extends eastward from
this low, demarcated well by both the 56 deg F isodrosotherm and the
edge of the cloud shield in visible satellite imagery. A surface
trough also extends southwestward from this low before arcing back
northwestward south of SJT into the TX Permian Basin.

The air mass south of the warm front also continues to destabilize,
particularly over the TX Hill County in the vicinity of the low.
Recent mesoanalysis suggests MLCAPE around 500 J/kg near the low,
increasing to over 1000 J/kg over in the region between Del Rio and
San Antonio. Continued destabilization is expected as the warm front
continue to move northward.

At the same time, persistent low-level convergence in the vicinity
of the low and its associated surface trough is expected to result
in eventual convective initiation. Visible satellite imagery has
shown several attempts at deep convection, although none have
succeeded thus far. Current attempt is underway over McCulloch
County. In addition to this mesoscale forcing, large-scale forcing
for ascent is gradually increasing across the region as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west.

Once convective initiation is realized, the environment is favorable
for maturation into supercells. Primary hazard throughout the
evening will be large hail while some damaging downburst winds are
also possible. Gradually strengthening low-level could also result
in a tornado or two.

..Mosier/Hart.. 03/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30770016 31639962 33039660 33209548 32909500 31919523
31119689 29929940 30770016
 
ryan1234 said:
Uh-oh... that's not good. At all. Because I am assuming this would also be at night?
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That would be around 6PM I think. It definitely looks like you get some interesting parameters into the southern Piedmont area, but it looks fairly shortlived and the overall potential for widespread severe weather still seems to kind of stall out as you get into NC.
 
Zander98al said:
Whats your forecast for tommorow arcc? On how bad it will . You to myfro guy. seems like this is a big time event. Is this similar to the veterans day outbreak back in 2002 I think?
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Gonna wait until the 0z model runs. I don’t have time to look through everything, but I will tonight.
 
From FFC AFD. As usual, NGA isn’t in the crosshairs the way MS and AL are, but not completely out of the woods:


The strong dynamics associated with this system
interacting with copious instability will lead to widespread severe
thunderstorm development to our west. By Thursday evening into
Thursday night, the strongest dynamics will lift northwest of our
local area with the parent system; however, sufficient shear and
instability will still allow for a significant severe threat. Though
instability will diminish somewhat by evening into the overnight,
SBCAPE values from 800-1200 J/kg coupled with 0-1km shear values as
high as 40-45 kts will produce a threat for damaging winds as well
as tornadoes as the activity pushes into northwest Georgia from the
west late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. While gradual
weakening of convection is likely farther east into the late
overnight hours, some severe potential will persist at least as far
east as the Atlanta metro.
 
Latest AFD from BMX:

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0248 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021/

Thursday and Thursday night.

An east-west band of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing
north of I-20 Alabama early Thursday morning. This activity will
be elevated on the north side of a surface warm front. Despite
strong forcing associated the warm air advection, mid level lapse
rates will warm quickly as the mid levels warm and saturate. Some
elevated storms possible, but nothing severe expected with the
initial round of activity associated with the warm front. The air
mass will quickly destabilize across west Alabama after sunrise
with surface based CAPE values reaching 1500-2000 J/kg by 9 AM,
and 2500 J/kg by Noon. Due to the rapid increase in instability
and 0-6km bulk shear values near 50 knots, decided to include
isolated severe storms during the morning hours along and west of
I-65. The main action will happen Thursday afternoon and evening
as the main forcing associated with the upper level short wave
trof approaches Alabama. All severe parameters favor supercells
with strong long track tornadoes. The area most likely for severe
storms is the northwest counties, where low level shear and instability
will be maximized. Earlier models were showing a fairly rapid
decrease in instability and forcing after sunset, but latest
model runs are keeping stronger storms later into the evening.
Still believe the severe threat will be mostly gone by midnight
Thursday night, but certainly conditions will remain favorable for
severe storms with rotating supercells throughout the evening
hours, especially along and north of I-20.

58/rose
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Huntsville AFD


The warm front will be lifting through the area early Thursday
morning. The low-level jet is rather strong and expect the front
should not have as much issue pushing through the forecast area like
last week. Additionally, one of the main difference is the lack of
the wedge front to the east. Due to these two factors, expect the
warm front will push well to the north of the forecast area with
dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s. The precipitation
associated with the warm front should push to the north of the area
late in the morning.

As the warm front exits to the north, this will be the key timeframe
to see how much destabilization happens ahead of the main round of
storms. The latest model guidance continues to tick up slightly on
the amount of destabilization. SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/Kg will
be realized Thursday afternoon with the warm front to the north. High
temperatures tomorrow will warm into the low to mid 70s with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s which will create a rather
volatile atmosphere. Another surge of the low-level jet is forecast
tomorrow afternoon and evening with 850 mb winds increasing to 50-60
kts. This low level shear will lead to 0-1 km SRH values of 250-400
m2/s2. Deep layer shear will be around 60-70 kts for 0-6 km bulk
shear. These values will be more than sufficient to support sustained
rotating updrafts. The surface low will also be deepening as it
tracks to the north of the forecast area. Supercells are supported
based of these parameters and shear vectors. Based on the shear
vectors, expect these storms will be moving quickly across the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. Shear vectors support speeds around
60 kts. All of these factors support all modes of severe weather
including tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flooding. Based
on the latest guidance a few strong/long track tornadoes cannot be
ruled out. The main timeframe will be from roughly 1PM through 11PM
on Thursday. The entire forecast area is now in the moderate risk for
severe weather for Thursday. Please remain weather aware throughout
the day Thursday.
 
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