Pattern Muddy March 2021

[NBAcentel]

It's like December all over again. With the added low latitude warming and temp contrasts that could get wild

Could be the culprit for more severe WX/solid temp gradients with stationary boundaries if the SER/EC ridge tries flexing

 

[NBAcentel]

Lol this is the ugliest possible pattern for wintry wx, the EPS already has mean highs near the 70s with this pattern, if we get a coupled -NAO this could be pushed back however, far out tho but that’s warm for that range

 

[olhausen]

Yeah hard to believe I saw snow in April near the coast as a kid. Not possible now barring an asteroid impact.


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April 14th 2020

 

[SD]

April 14th 2020
View attachment 77063

Saw it snow here in April 2018

 

[NBAcentel]

That’s cool

 

[SD]

That’s cool

What's the criteria

 

[NBAcentel]

What's the criteria

Blizzard warning
Nah but fr 500mb, I’m assuming the classic nina pattern you’d see (-PNA/EC ridge/SE US ridge )

 

[NBAcentel]

That basically means this year has been super anomalous when it comes to La Niña standards, crazy ! El Niño’s have been like ninas at H5 lately which is the strange part

 

[Webberweather53]

What's the criteria

They use anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) (as is also often used to determine "skill" for forecast models in synoptic settings)

The equation looks something like this, it's actually not bad. The numerator is basically the sum of the forecast anomalies (f'm) and observed anomalies (o'm) at each grid point divided by the square root of the forecast and observed anomalies squared. (Cm = climo)

 

[SWVAwxfan]

It's literally pouring down snow, sleet and freezing rain here. 32 degrees.

 

[Webberweather53]

Most of the rain is going north of me right now. Thank goodness

 

[NBAcentel]

Most of the rain is going north of me right now. Thank goodness

Not fair, pouring here, I’m sure you want some more rain

 

[olhausen]

Saw it snow here in April 2018

I Had only seen very light flurries in April once since I moved here in 2006. That was until April 2018 which I saw snow fall twice that month and then again in 2020.
April 7th 2018

April 16th 2018

 

[SWVAwxfan]

Already a dusting on the ground

 

[NBAcentel]

Pretty average if you blend for next week

 

[NBAcentel]

Shave off 60 degrees and boom

 

[NBAcentel]

Sigh there goes the warmth

 

[SWVAwxfan]

Sigh there goes the warmth

Yeah. They had that dark red over Texas for February. Gee, how did that work out for them?

 

[NBAcentel]

Lol

 

[Nomanslandva]

Snow sleet mix here at 35. Dusting on the ground. This could have been decent if we would not have busted to high on last nights low. ?

 

[cd2play]

Lol View attachment 77080

I surrender

 

[NBAcentel]

Lol every model goes blowtorch after the day 6-9 EC trough what could go wrong

 

[LickWx]

Lol every model goes blowtorch after the day 6-9 EC trough what could go wrong

East Asia rule bro.

 

[NBAcentel]

East Asia rule bro.

+EARB

 

[Shaggy]

Gfs still drowning large areas of the Carolinas.

 

[Avalanche]

Lol View attachment 77080

Tis the story of 20-21

 

[ATLwxfan]

The good news is that spinning low pressure system next weekend appears to be manufacturing its own warm air.


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[ATLwxfan]

Yeah. They had that dark red over Texas for February. Gee, how did that work out for them?

Looks about right for March, though.


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[Shaggy]

Last 3 runs of the gfs are WTF worthy

 

[NBAcentel]

Lol I’m wondering if we should get scared yet seeing these sorts of look wrt to cutoffs and it’s relevance to hurricane season haha

 

[Tarheel1]

Lol I’m wondering if we should get scared yet seeing these sorts of look wrt to cutoffs and it’s relevance to hurricane season haha

If this summer is an La Niña, I’m concerned about hurricane season being bad for the E coast and gulf again!

 

[SWVAwxfan]

Got about a 1/2 inch of sleet and snow accumulation this evening. Now, just misting.

 

[NBAcentel]

Got about a 1/2 inch of sleet and snow accumulation this evening. Now, just misting.

Rich got less richer ?

 

[tramadoc]

This rain keeps up I’m gonna grow gills and flippers.

 

[NBAcentel]

March 2018 on the ICON

 

[NBAcentel]

So the v16/GFS/GEFs looks meh while the CMC/ICON look close to something, already the look at H5 could so easily go wrong

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I know people don’t want to hear it but this period holds potential for a lot of cold rain and even some winter weather ... crazy upper level lows being spit out at medium range and we think we know the answer on what’s to come? Nope

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

March 2018 on the ICON View attachment 77097

hard pass

 

[NBAcentel]

hard pass

Yeah I agree get that outa here

 

[NBAcentel]

Lol where was this in January or February.