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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Webberweather53 said:
Wednesday looks like a picture perfect day, still gonna be some mud around but looks like most of us in central nc will reach well into the 60s, with folks south of the Triangle probably reaching the 70s. Excited for it.
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It feels good when something you actually want pans out as progged. Refreshing really. We get the warm but can we just get the dry?


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We're getting to a point in climo where we have to worry about temps. The wave orientation is fools gold with a resemblance of February 2004, and December 2018. The big caveat would be the major +WPO similar to last December which will struggle to keep things cold enough.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4988800.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom-4988800.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_anom_stream-4988800.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-snow_48hr-4988800.png
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-5032000.png
 
Basically three warm days after 2 CADed days then a trough swings through to our NE ? I’ll take it
Overall warmer trends on the models in the medium range but getting colder around day 7+7D222028-7E7E-439E-87F8-5497C034C59E.png9A1F9EC4-37CF-4CF1-BD91-E0A50AF1F398.pngE17CB894-983B-491E-BB3B-5A6EB66F38C4.png
 
Sucks that the Canada vortex moves out so fast, we find ways to fail each and everytime ? no sort of blocking prior that TPV digging in 2EA88C46-EFBC-4776-9D2B-C0D8447684D4.png
 
This just proves how much heights around SE Canada matter for us East of the mountains, even with a weaker ridge overall, it was much warmer because heights were higher around there, this doesn’t look long lived tho unfortunately DAD3AF4B-F38C-469E-BF20-27D2E7AFE580.png
 
EURO at 12z really got rid of all that trough dumping in the west .. for warm lovers probably not the best thing to see .. cold lovers ?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
EURO at 12z really got rid of all that trough dumping in the west .. for warm lovers probably not the best thing to see .. cold lovers ?
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This run was actually better for warmth in the medium range given days backed off on CAD but the trough is trending faster which is bringing in cooler weather afterwards quicker, it’s a win win for both sides
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
After the warm up on the GFS, this is actually a legit look View attachment 76787
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Legit ZR threat fwiw that far out. Who’s to say that this doesn’t end up being the final widespread wintry precip threat of the season? Of course, the GFS may be on crack and it not get nearly this cold. It has been cold biased. But we still watch just in case.

Please do not toss, folks! I’ve asked SouthernWx staff to put a moratorium on tossing this run. Your cooperation is much appreciated.
 
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GaWx said:
Legit ZR threat fwiw that far out. Who’s to say that this doesn’t end up being the final widespread wintry precip threat of the season? Of course, the GFS may be on crack and it not get nearly this cold. It has been cold biased. But we still watch just in case.

Please do not toss, folks! I’ve asked SouthernWx staff to put a moratorium on tossing this run. Your cooperation is much appreciated.
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With the successive warmer runs for Friday I would not toss this run. I would jettison it into outer space.


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Although the GFS may easily be on crack, the first half of March has been the proud host of sig to major SE winter storms that are not relegated mainly to NC/upstate SC:

1924, 1942, 1948, 1960 (3!), 1962, 1980, 1993, 2009 among others

So, 8 winters of the last 97 or one every 12 winters on average if I haven't left off any. The ones I listed had a big impact even down in much of GA and also SC/AL in many cases.

And I'm leaving off a good number of relatively minor events.

Moral of the majority: early March, especially first week, is still very much winter. Actually, I think some of the first week is in met winter by some definitions for some areas of the US. Keep in mind that the Arctic coldest average is not til 2/25.

So, time to be a weenie: 2009 + 12 = 2021!
 
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The gfs keeps insisting on sub -40C at 850 in SE Canada just north of the US 2/28-3/2. I mean that is insanely cold anytime of winter. Whereas extreme cold there isn’t unheard of this late in the season, the gfs is probably on crack due to cold bias. But, I am noticing the Euro trending colder there the last few runs. It is that extreme cold that leads to the borderline SE ZR soon after on gfs. Although odds favor gfs is on crack with the intensity of the cold, has anyone asked themselves “what if gfs at least has a good clue?” and 850s there still get to, say, sub -32C? What if?
 
GaWx said:
The gfs keeps insisting on sub -40C at 850 in SE Canada just north of the US 2/28-3/2. I mean that is insanely cold anytime of winter. Whereas extreme cold there isn’t unheard of this late in the season, the gfs is probably on crack due to cold bias. But, I am noticing the Euro trending colder there the last few runs. It is that extreme cold that leads to the borderline SE ZR soon after on gfs. Although odds favor gfs is on crack with the intensity of the cold, has anyone asked themselves “what if gfs at least has a good clue?” and 850s there still get to, say, sub -32C? What if?
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You seem to be a lot more knowledgeable than me, but isn’t March getting late to have widespread ZR/IP storms? It just seems that after 3/1 SE winter storms tend to take the form of snow. I’m sure there have been March ice storms, but I honestly can’t recall any in my lifetime
 
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