Storm5
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
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WeatherWatch
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Too early to tell on the GFS, but the CMC looked like it was going to be a direct Florida hit, then immediately began moving northward. The GFS is further west though.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GFS is definitely not trending in the right direction if you want to see Irma avoid the US... It's progressively slowing it down and pushing it further SW with each run... Cave to the Euro.
Storm5
Member
12z cmc
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WeatherWatch
Member
It's sad that people put out fake/scam outlooks out. It puts a bad look on the weather community. If people keep putting out fake/scam outlooks it makes me think the government will take away the rights from non-meteorologist to have access to any of the weather models. I think they wanted to do that at one point and as a independent forecaster, I do not want that.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep, the new eye is likely going to be about 10-15 nautical miles in diameter when it clears out again. The storm will become larger as it ages due to eyewall replacement cycles, entrance into an environment with higher background moisture and SSTs, all of which will likely expand the wind field of the storm...
Trough leaves it behind... this run spells trouble
Storm5
Member
12z cmc is moving N/NE off the southeast coast by day ten with an open door to head OTS
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This run isn't gonna go OTS, the Azores-Bermuda high is bridging over the top with the Rockies ridge that's slid eastward into southern Canada and there's a cut off ULL over the south-central US that will try to capture it. This run will very likely hit the US...
Brent
Member
this GFS run is a big problem for the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic I bet
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It looks like another NE storm.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Classic US landfalling z500 pattern on this GFS run... Massive burgeoning ridge over southeastern Canada and a relative weakness near the northern Gulf coast with a TC over the SW Atlantic.
Not sure about the open door OTS, CMC has that ULL too if run went past 240 it might try to pull it back in...
Storm5
Member
Gfs is moving NE at 228 but with a building high im not sure why its tryimg to go east
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Storm5
Member
Its trying to plow right into the ridge 
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol it's the GFS what else do you expect...
Big take away for me that run was the trough lifting out early, once that happens many options are back on the table..... still long way to go with this one. Webb models still having difficulty figuring out the H5 pattern due to recurving Sanvu, gonna see some erratic model output for a few days?
Brent
Member
Rhode Island it is at 300 hours
Wonky way to get there
Wonky way to get there
Well New England region is getting slammed again.
Brent
Member
takes 12 1/2 days on the GFS to hit...
no thanks lol
no thanks lol
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Congrats! Let them have it!
Yep, same old same old, the models love over doing the eastern trough. I think Florida is in the cross hairs eventually.
Storm5
Member
I bet the euro stays on the southern side of the envelope
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pcbjr
Member
This is just so much fun ...
WeatherWatch
Member
This map was made from Scott from Weather Optics. I'm going with a path between 3 and 2 from his map.
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pcbjr
Member
Took the afternoon off to relax after a long week and with a big one next week, and this just blew the early Friday "happy hour"This map was made from Scott from Weather Optics. I'm going with a path between 3 and 2 from his map.
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... LOL
pcbjr
Member
Wife looked at this and just said, "Hope you have lubricant for your chain saw." Notice the singular and not the plural (?) ...This map was made from Scott from Weather Optics. I'm going with a path between 3 and 2 from his map.
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WeatherWatch
Member
Also, from that map, imo, the most realsitic path is between 3 and 2 atm. I made a map last night and I'm still confident enough that I'm going with this track.
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GFS is not very smart with that run. Bothers me seeing it so close to the SC coast with no real place to go with the ridge building overtop... On to the Euro.
I just dont see how that system in the SE doesn't influence it more with that kind of ridge building in and basically trapping it. These things are supposed to take the path of least resistance I thought?
I just dont see how that system in the SE doesn't influence it more with that kind of ridge building in and basically trapping it. These things are supposed to take the path of least resistance I thought?
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, this pattern is largely hinging on the recurvature of Sanvu and it's extratropical transition and we won't know for at least another few days what the general z500 is gonna look like downstream over North America
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Two GEFS camps: One goes straight through Florida, the other is a scrape the NE one.
SW shift overall on the GEFS though.... not a shift in the right directionTwo GEFS camps: One goes straight through Florida, the other is a scrape the NE one.
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