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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

ryan1234 said:
Yeah, I don't understand why Brad is always so sure of himself. He's a great met, but does this all the time. Is right a lot of the time? Yes. But for gods sakes, at least say it's something to watch.
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One thing that I don’t think is being taken into account by some forecasters as much as it should is just how dry an airmass that there is in place ahead of this. The NAM is holding firm that dewpoints tomorrow night will be down in the teens across most of western and central NC and some some single digits still showing up in VA. We’ve really not had that type of airmass in place ahead of a potential storm in a long time
 
Won’t latent heat release eventually warm areas receiving ZR to just above freezing in an in-situ CAD situation? Granted, that may take a while, but it is self-limiting to some degree. I think RAH is being a little conservative in their forecast at this point, though. Zilch ZR here and 0.01-0.1” at GSO seem a bit low to me. 0.01-0.1” here and 0.1-0.25” for GSO is more like it, IMHO.
 
superjames1992 said:
Won’t latent heat release eventually warm areas receiving ZR to just above freezing in an in-situ CAD situation? Granted, that may take a while, but it is self-limiting to some degree. I think RAH is being a little conservative in their forecast at this point, though. Zilch ZR here and 0.01-0.1” at GSO seem a bit low to me. 0.01-0.1” here and 0.1-0.25” for GSO is more like it, IMHO.
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Yes, over time, without a continued source (high over NE US) of cold, dry air, latent heat release from freezing rain will push temps above the freezing level. IF, the in-situ damming is strong enough, it may not be able to overcome these cold temps until the precip is gone, esp in the Triad an points N and W.
 
superjames1992 said:
Won’t latent heat release eventually warm areas receiving ZR to just above freezing in an in-situ CAD situation? Granted, that may take a while, but it is self-limiting to some degree. I think RAH is being a little conservative in their forecast at this point, though. Zilch ZR here and 0.01-0.1” at GSO seem a bit low to me. 0.01-0.1” here and 0.1-0.25” for GSO is more like it, IMHO.
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In-situ icing is hard to forecast and a lot of times it's a nowcasting situation with where the freezing line sets up. I've seen it split Durham county before with .25 inches of ice to the north and west and nothing to the east.


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I'm still not liking the look of the freezing rain potential for the Triad....I have my fingers crossed for it to be cold enough for sleet before the freezing rain takes over. I've lost power in these situations before and I don't want to again.
I don't think this is going to be big ice storm, like some in the past, but I think it will be big enough to cause some issues
 
WxGSO said:
Yes, over time, without a continued source (high over NE US) of cold, dry air, latent heat release from freezing rain will push temps above the freezing level. IF, the in-situ damming is strong enough, it may not be able to overcome these cold temps until the precip is gone, esp in the Triad an points N and W.
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Also you can have something happen like President’s Day 2015 and a meso-high forms and helps to lock in the sub-freezing temps longer.
 
NWS RAH :

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iGRXY said:
Ehhhhh. I feel more comfortable saying Greenville, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Pickens going north.
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Yeah Anderson may very well, if not likely, be on the outside looking in but I'd be willing to bet that the ice would get down to me in Union county. Maybe not the city itself though. Sort of like Jan 1999 when Jonesville ended up less than 5 miles inside the the ice. Lost power for 30 hours with it here.
 
In my 4 years here, it seems like these in-situ CADs hold on longer than modeled/forecast. But I could be wrong. It just always seems to overperform to a degree (no pun intended).
 
How does the rapid refresh and hrrr do in these kind of set ups? Both are kind of similar to what brad p thinks
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Imo if I was up there, I don’t really want to be a party pooper, but I’d bet with much less snow/more ZR/IP, 1-3 and maybe 4 in some spots around Roanoke, but the NAMs amount of WAA is a killer, that front end WAA band could do some work tho with some snow
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I would not be surprised if that front end band is the only pure snow we see to be honest! Just how things normally work with a low way to the NW in OH/IN. Hoping not but that is sort of what I expect too.
 
So far my temp is 37 falling 6 degrees below TWC and 2 degrees below GSP. Dew point is 19. Forecast low is 26 we’ll see.
 
Looks like we could be seeing the models come further south with the wintery precip just like the previous storm.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is not good..... is the NAM on to something ? View attachment 69157
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I having mixed emotions. I don’t want a ice storm. That was a pretty dramatic shift. Was there a change with setup (high pressure, track of the low), or is the Euro just catching onto the depth of the CAD?
 
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NCHighCountryWX said:
Sperry Piltz Ice Accumulation Index

Ice Storm Potential Damage Index

www.usawx.com

View attachment 69147
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I've been in that black zone before. December 2002. Never forget it. Killed power to 100% of the county. Sat in dark,cold for 8 days. Even the hospital was out. You couldnt get gas for generators. Would stand on deck and listen to booms as trees snapped,crashed in the woods. Up their in my top 4 [March 1993 mtns,Crusher 2000, 17 inch ULL Feb 2004].
 
packfan98 said:
I having mixed emotions. I don’t want a ice storm. That was a pretty dramatic shift. Was there a change with setup (high pressure, track of the low), or is the Euro just catching onto the depth of the CAD?
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Looked like a little bit of the euro showing slightly stronger CAD and catching on tbh
 
packfan98 said:
I having mixed emotions. I don’t want a ice storm. That was a pretty dramatic shift. Was there a change with setup (high pressure, track of the low), or is the Euro just catching onto the depth of the CAD?
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I havent looked. But im willing to bet its just catching on as game time nears. Globals really struggle with cad. Per webb,past history. Ill get all in on soundings tomorrow. My thoughts are we hit +.25 frzng rn easy right now. Thats winter storm warn criteria. But im like nws. You really have to wait till game time to nowcast the cads. To have a chance to nail down exact details.
 
NCSNOW said:
I've been in that black zone before. December 2002. Never forget it. Killed power to 100% of the county. Sat in dark,cold for 8 days. Even the hospital was out. You couldnt get gas for generators. Would stand on deck and listen to booms as trees snapped,crashed in the woods. Up their in my top 4 [March 1993 mtns,Crusher 2000, 17 inch ULL Feb 2004].
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Dec 2002 was rough but somehow we only spent 2.5 days without power. Lost it for 4 with the crusher.
 
The GSP metro is certainly overdue. The last really serious ice storm in this area was in Dec 2005. Most of western NC has had major ice since that time.
 
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