That was what got me excited a few days ago.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Oh ---- 
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
12Z sounding in the Triad. If true there should be no problem getting warning criteria accrual.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
“biting nails nervously”
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Man I hope this can shift north. This would be a crippling ice storm. At least for my area and north 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Two things, deeper wedge and the NAM catching up on more precip.
That’s really bad lol if we get more precip to start earlier with those low dews
Here’s the FRAM
3km isn’t pretty either 
At this point we don’t want it, we’re finding any hope to trend to IP lol
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I don't see snow in this set up at all. Slight chance at the beginning and slight chance the next day
iGRXY
Member
NAM definitely pushed the ICE down further south in the upstate. was a colder push as well. Precip starts moving in faster than the models anticipate with those low Dew Points and it's going to be a sneaky lights out type event for a lot of folks.
Could be pingermaggedon with a deep enough cold layer (that Triad sounding posted above might do it), but it’s not going to be snow. That mid level warm nose is FIRE.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Not sure if any folks in alabama or georgia are paying attention but this could get interesting for y'all early Monday. 
Damn if we get precip to develop even earlier we may try to get a few snowflakes on the front end (main batch)
but after everything is on fire aloft, just a big oof, no hope, unless your in the foothills 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Lol that little dot if blue is directly over my house
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I do not like the look of this. The 3k nam has freezing drizzle all night sunday basically for iredell county and north 
Worth nothing, the CAMs that have that front end finger band, have more way more ZR, so no surprise the NAM had more ZR with a stronger finger band to cool things off
Avalanche
Member
Maybe we can get something in Chatham, but per models, we are too far east.
olhausen
Member
Dag Namit I’ve been Naaaaaaaaamed. I live right in the center of that blue circle.
smast16
Member
The ticket to this whole system is dew points, and why are the HRRR's so high compared to the Nam 3k??
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The HRRR is just not reliable in the LR (that's my opinion, but I believe it's true.).
Blacksburg pulled the trigger on a Watch.. Warning shot ??
As well as GSP
Avalanche
Member
Is this one of those scenarios where early and heavy onset is needed?
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
There must not have been much collaboration with RAH. Their discussion gave no hint of any serious ice, even in the Triad.
Hrrr loves to have dewpoints to high in these sort of air masses, for example the Christmas system, it’s just terrible with CADs and has always been until it’s super close, it seems to be trigger happy about cold around 850mb/low levels but lackluster with sfc cold
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Just looking at @Webberweather53 storm maps. The January 29-30 2005 storm accumulations look kind of similar to what I could see happen. At least for NC.
Here’s a top notch example of this lol
Stephenb888
Member
Is this something us in Anderson, SC are gonna have to watch? or is it likely not gonna be this far down.
iGRXY
Member
RGEM holding the CAD longer again as well.
iGRXY
Member
Ehhhhh. I feel more comfortable saying Greenville, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Pickens going north.
Deep backside CAA at the SFC with freezing drizzle could be a big issue as well given the shallow moist layers on soundings
Here was the FRAM 3km btw
They're LR (which includes Sunday) hasn't updated yet from this morning.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
And freezing drizzle was still going ??Here was the FRAM 3km btw
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Good catch! I saw the first two headings with a "pm" and totally missed that one!