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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Thanks. I didn't see that one as the paraLLEL when you posted it the first time.
 
Stormdoc said:
Maybe wishcasting here, but with our last event the NAM also had very little precip up until about 36 hrs, then started beefing it up. Let’s see how it trends
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It did a really good job with predicting the dry slot for the front end stuff. I think it was a little too dry with the back-end snow though.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
To be fair the Rgem matches the gfs with qpf but it’s just a lot warmer.
Looks like gfs family and rgem vs the rest.
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Yes, it does. My thing with the RGEM is that it's below freezing at 850mb(where all the forcing is occurring), but it still has rain for much of the state because the surface and boundary temperatures are a little too warm...could it be underestimating the dynamic cooling processes or is it just a bit too warm near the surface? Unfortunately the 12z HRRR agrees with the RGEM that it's too warm for the southern half of the state.
 
SD said:
Agreed. I'd love to jump on the gfs but until something really backs it up this seems much more realistic
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4-6" might fall but if we dont get the surface to freezing then it will be a struggle to get meaningful accumulation.....timing wise works for us a bit overnight but still need that GFS 30 temp to be legit....
 
Rap really likes the triad
 

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Haven’t seen it yet, so guessing the UK isn't so hot....or maybe it's too hot?
 
  • Haha
Reactions: SD
Shaggy said:
So this begs the question.........we had good runs a week ago for this timeframe with some decent amounts......wouldnt call them big dogs but solid 6 inch members on the ensembles and op runs.

Is this a situation like we've seen before where the models lose the system in the mid range only to bring it back at crunch time in the short range? The last 72 hour of trends have all been improving just not to the degree of the Gfs.
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i was thinking the same thing. We have seen that time and time again with legit storms.
 
0D5E1E40-E454-48BD-B406-B2B1ABC55F32.jpeg
100 % (okay 99.9 I see u.. you ugly #15) show a NC snow storm in 48 hours ... some even show a FOOT

we can’t blow a 48 hour lead?? RIGHT?!?

This will go down in the history books for the forum .. and will give us lots of answers on who we need to listen to going forward
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
View attachment 68104
100 % (okay 99.9 I see u.. you ugly #15) show a NC snow storm in 48 hours ... some even sho.w a FOOT

we can’t blow a 48 hour lead?? RIGHT?!?

This will go down in the history books for the forum .. and will give us lots of answers on who we need to listen to going forward
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WRONG, lol. I've blown a 12 hour lead of 6+ inch means on both the GEFS and EPS for MBY. Ended up with less than an inch. Has happened more than once.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
View attachment 68104
100 % (okay 99.9 I see u.. you ugly #15) show a NC snow storm in 48 hours ... some even show a FOOT

we can’t blow a 48 hour lead?? RIGHT?!?

This will go down in the history books for the forum .. and will give us lots of answers on who we need to listen to going forward
Click to expand...
Lol we can and have before.
 
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