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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

SD said:
Lol 3k barely had any precip that's crazy
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We toss, right? modernweenie

It is hard to believe this setup will yield as little precipitation as it’s showing, for real, though.
 
metwannabe said:
So any word on whether KRAX will be back up and running in time for this event? It shutdown on the 21st and they said for 5-7 days, just curious on progress, I couldn't find an update.
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Too bad WRAL doesn’t make its non-reflectivity dul-pol radar products available online. We could use a good correlation coefficient scan tomorrow night.
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 68050
I decided to put together a call map here as almost all the models have some form of hit for TN, NC, and VA. Everything from an inch or so to 7" is the spread. I would go for the lighter amounts but not quite as low as the euro has. There will be more widespread of the lower end amounts but you will likely have a few isolated higher amounts within each area.
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In my opinion, that's way too bullish. The temps are going to be in the mid-30s, and with rates that really don't seem to be that heavy, I expect much less. I don't like the NAM, but the last system did a good job showing the dry air.
 
I wouldn’t say the NAMS are on a trend I think they’re on an island ... usually they end up drier than reality shows especially in their longer ranges .. give them a few more cycles before we really freak out about them
 
SD said:
Lol 3k barely had any precip that's crazy
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Seems we've seen this from the NAM before though, as noted above I do recall since it's last upgrade it seems to have gone in the other extreme with qpf.... maybe, I don't know or could be I'm just uncontrollably wishcasting
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I wouldn’t say the NAMS are on a trend I think they’re on an island ... usually they end up drier than reality shows especially in their longer ranges .. give them a few more cycles before we really freak out about them
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Except it's not entirely on an Island, Euro flat and low end qpf too

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metwannabe said:
Seems we've seen this from the NAM before though, as noted above I do recall since it's last upgrade it seems to have gone in the other extreme with qpf.... maybe, I don't know or could be I'm just uncontrollably wishcasting
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Idk man I would be more on the it's just a dry bias if it were more similar to the others. The flat wave, no convergence idea is concerning but if the rest of the models come in not like the nam then it's just meh
 
SD said:
Idk man I would be more on the it's just a dry bias if it were more similar to the others. The flat wave, no convergence idea is concerning but if the rest of the models come in not like the nam then it's just meh
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Yeah I agree, I said that but also posted how it is very similar to the Euro.... having those two is concerning. I'm leaning very light event if event at all.
 
Even with a flatter wave I think those in NE NC stand the best chance as the low pulls away to get cranking. Like I said 80% - 90% of my call map are likely going to be on those lower end amounts but I definitely see isolated areas that get under a heavier band to pick up a quick 2 or 3 inches potentially. The euro isn’t as amped with the moisture as the GFS but the NAM really is by itself with the precip depiction. I think most of the northern tier counties in NC and the northeastern coastal plain will see an inch out of this. But some pockets of higher amounts very easily could be likely as well. But let’s see what the 12z suite says.
 
Rain Cold said:
Reply back and say "No, it doesn't help. It doesn't help at all. We have a mild, dry snowstorm coming, and we need to be able to see it!"
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Lol I seriously considered it but I wanted to be nice, the last two times I tweeted weather reports to them they completely ignored it so hoping by being nice next time they will acknowledge hah!
 
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