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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Just a friendly reminder It's the GFS! Be sure and have your depression med's for post event......................
Shaggy
Member
I would assune.......i suck at soundings...... that anywhere along and just south of that rn/sn line could actually be seeing snow under heaviest returns even us guys in the east?
lol if this is right those are huge and I mean huge rates, as long as it keeps trending west it’s fine but any NW trend and you start running into a possible mid level warm nose (which I’m not worried about) 
If we could just extend that about 20-25 miles south
How did dec 2010 do ? I know it came back but was it in this fashion ?
I believe it came back via a NW trend, not a SE trend.
???
Even as I posted that, I looked and see that 29/30 GEFS members have at least snow falling for me and 27/30 have at least a 1/2 inch. If the GFS is right and its trends continue just a little more southwest, then CLT metro is very much in play.
Whew chile, this is unbelievable 
It's about to take on that SW to NE slant, with a few more ticks like that.
I can't wait to see which model wins. I know which one I'm going with per past experience.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
This year ive noticed that the HRRR has been more accurate than the NAM. Thats goes at least for me in Roanoke.
Thor
Member
Really trended to be right on top of each other. Didn't think the PV could catch up.
NCSNOW
Member
What a comeback this has been. All about storm bombing out right as it exits coast. This has way more high side bust potential than low side. If it fails want have to wait but for 3 days and try again. Good Times
Normally I would agree, but in this case the difference between the two is not with a warm nose or thermals, but simply with precip amounts. Of course, it would be nice to see the NAM trend towards the GFS tonight!I can't wait to see which model wins. I know which one I'm going with per past experience.
View attachment 68248
View attachment 68249
BHS1975
Member
HRRR is looking SWEEEEET!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good point. I think they gimped the NAMs when they tweaked them for QPF output, lol.
The timeframe looks to be between 11pm Wednesday, and 5am Thursday. Will be nice to have this happen in the middle of the night, rather than the day.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, if this ends up being nothing at least it brings the cold for the Sunday system.
blueheronNC
Member
Mike Maze WRAL thinking "dusting - 1/2inch" as cold chases the moisture. "May just be a novelty."
Supposed to be a high of 57° here today. Only hit 51°.
This is going to be a bust of moderate proportions whichever way it goes. Will WFOs issue Advisories and if so who gets blanked?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
One thing I have noticed about the GFS today is the consistency of where it is showing the heaviest amounts. It is in the same spot this run, but just more.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Para totals
Para pretty much like the GFS, too, and has been just as consistent with the heaviest areas of accumulation.
You can ALWAYS adjust high, but taking back a big forecast of snow doesn't go well
The 18z model runs are exciting to see, tho....
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Really, they might have overcorrected things because of how it used to way overdo the precip.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Suckers is my vote
This is correct for the most part. Perhaps it’s nudged a bit south, but more than anything the total area of snowfall has expanded
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
One of the most accurate models there is. The Tom Brady of models if you will.
LickWx
Member
Was just about to post that it was taking on that look. That would be great for Charlotte and the western Piedmont but would jeopardize eastern NCIt's about to take on that SW to NE slant, with a few more ticks like that.
Euro coming in more juiced 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That is a big increase
I smelly smell Deformation zone under favorable dCVA 
CAVE
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Also looks to have the similar spot for the most snow as the GFS and para GFS.
ajr
Member
Looking healthy upstream
I am starting to believe this might actually happen.