Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

[Rain Cold]

Haven’t seen it yet, so guessing the UK isn't so hot....or maybe it's too hot?

 

[Brick Tamland]

So this begs the question.........we had good runs a week ago for this timeframe with some decent amounts......wouldnt call them big dogs but solid 6 inch members on the ensembles and op runs.

Is this a situation like we've seen before where the models lose the system in the mid range only to bring it back at crunch time in the short range? The last 72 hour of trends have all been improving just not to the degree of the Gfs.

i was thinking the same thing. We have seen that time and time again with legit storms.

 

[SouthSideYankee]

RDU jackpot on the 12z GFS.

 

[mrdaddyman]

Haven’t seen it yet, so guessing the UK isn't so hot....or maybe it's too hot?

 

[SouthSideYankee]

Lol
View attachment 68066

This has gotta be a Kuchera ratio right? We won't get even half of this lol

 

[Brick Tamland]

Wonder where Webber has been? Haven't seen him post here in a couple of days.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Haven’t seen it yet, so guessing the UK isn't so hot....or maybe it's too hot?

Not it's not at all lo

Eric hates the nam. I remember getting into an argument with him about it ?

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I agree with him and I actually tend to lean towards the GFS/CMC/RGEM/HRRR/RAP camp that there will be a band of heavy precip along a mid-level front that goes through the state. The GFS might be too cold near the surface and lower levels though.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

100 % (okay 99.9 I see u.. you ugly #15) show a NC snow storm in 48 hours ... some even show a FOOT

we can’t blow a 48 hour lead?? RIGHT?!?

This will go down in the history books for the forum .. and will give us lots of answers on who we need to listen to going forward

 

[Metwannabe]

This has gotta be a Kuchera ratio right? We won't get even half of this lol

That is the 10:1 ratio not Kuchera, I posted the Kuchera further down, it was less but still significant

 

[Metwannabe]

Actually the Ukmet was a little closer to the GFS in the mid levels just too warm at surface and had decent qpf

 

[SouthSideYankee]

Lol 100% chance of > 1 in
View attachment 68081View attachment 68082View attachment 68083

The amount of hits on the gefs compared to the last one is insane.

 

[mrdaddyman]

View attachment 68104
100 % (okay 99.9 I see u.. you ugly #15) show a NC snow storm in 48 hours ... some even sho.w a FOOT

we can’t blow a 48 hour lead?? RIGHT?!?

This will go down in the history books for the forum .. and will give us lots of answers on who we need to listen to going forward

WRONG, lol. I've blown a 12 hour lead of 6+ inch means on both the GEFS and EPS for MBY. Ended up with less than an inch. Has happened more than once.

 

[Brick Tamland]

View attachment 68104
100 % (okay 99.9 I see u.. you ugly #15) show a NC snow storm in 48 hours ... some even show a FOOT

we can’t blow a 48 hour lead?? RIGHT?!?

This will go down in the history books for the forum .. and will give us lots of answers on who we need to listen to going forward

19 out of 20. Those are good odds.

 

[SouthSideYankee]

Not it's not at all lo

Eric hates the nam. I remember getting into an argument with him about it ?

To be fair the NAM screwed us last year. Predicted 6 + and we got maybe 2"

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The UK is so close to a ripping band of heavy wet snow here lol, for example the soundings I pulled in that heavy QPF near my area

 

[SD]

View attachment 68104
100 % (okay 99.9 I see u.. you ugly #15) show a NC snow storm in 48 hours ... some even show a FOOT

we can’t blow a 48 hour lead?? RIGHT?!?

This will go down in the history books for the forum .. and will give us lots of answers on who we need to listen to going forward

Lol we can and have before.

 

[Chazwin]

WRONG, lol. I've blown a 12 hour lead of 6+ inch means on both the GEFS and EPS for MBY. Ended up with less than an inch. Has happened more than once.

January 2017

 

[SouthSideYankee]

What's the timing on this system? Late tomorrow evening for any snow chances?

 

[KyloG]

It seems the globals (ICON/GFS/Para/UK) all agree on heavier precip in NC...would like to see the NAM's get that right and then see what they show.