Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

[FallsLake]

This one will live in infamy with me. It tempers my weeniedom with model promises still.

See that little orange spot at the north end of Wake, that's me. Got ~4" of sleet. I enjoyed it but man that was too close for me. As stated before, I would love to see a storm where the transition line was a couple of counties to the southeast.

 

[superjames1992]

I guess really there's 3 camps here, dry nam, wet cooler gfs, wet warmer cmc/uk/icon

We know the drill here. Take the warmest model’s temps with the driest model’s precip, and that’s reality. So zilch for us. modernweenie

 

[benjammin]

Reply back and say "No, it doesn't help. It doesn't help at all. We have a mild, dry snowstorm coming, and we need to be able to see it!"

They should have tweeted back: "Look out the window." ;-)

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

 

[superjames1992]

Guess is a slushy inch or two. Nam is too dry and the GFS is too cold.

I feel like this may even be too optimistic, but not a bad guess. I would be satisfied with it, I want to see sticking snow again. We’ll see the Doc’s latest prognosis shortly.

 

[CaryWx]

We know the drill here. Take the warmest model’s temps with the driest model’s precip, cut these amounts in half and that’s reality. So zilch for us. modernweenie

FTFY

 

[NCSNOW]

Euro looks carbon copy to GFS out to 24. Southern piece is slower, behind the northern piece moreso on euro than GFS.

 

[mrdaddyman]

Gotcha. I’m just always a little doubtful of the BL keeping us as rain. Provided enough precip, I would truly expect rates to overcome in such a situation, though it could cost a tenth or two of QPF. Of course, if precip itself is marginal, that could literally cost us everything.

I just can’t really think of any examples of where BL temps cost us a major storm. They can hurt (for one, the snow will accumulate poorer), but usually aren’t fatal.

Regarding accumulations, warm BL temps and a wet ground won’t be doing us any favors, though. And I doubt soil temps are very cold, either. At least it’ll be falling overnight with the sun down.

 

[NCSNOW]

Hour 42 GFS was little more robust with energy

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro looks better

 

[Myfrotho704_]

?

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Much better run snowfall wise !

 

[Metwannabe]

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Dern, I need a NW trend lol

 

[NCSNOW]

10:1. Cant get Kuchera yet

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GFS AMERICAN COUP

 

[Metwannabe]

Dern, I need a NW trend lol

It was a joke guys..... chill Lol

 

[NCSNOW]

Between Hours 30-36 is when the GFS Suites pick up on a little more energy at H5 compared to Euro. Not sure why, but they both look identical. So hopefully the euro catches a whiff of the gFS ,HRRR GO JUICE at this juncture.
We really want to see this thing rev up, bomb out. The more the better served we will all be. Track is pretty much set in stone at H5

 

[mrdaddyman]

Kuchera

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It was a joke guys..... chill Lol

The euro looked a tad bit further south at H5, wasn’t really a change in how amped it was either, interesting

 

[Brick Tamland]

GFS AMERICAN COUP

Well, being positive or negative about the chances isn't going to change what's going to happen, so might as well be positive. I like how the GFS has gotten better and better, the para GFS has stayed consistent, and the Euro is at least showing snow. I think this could end up being a pretty good storm.