Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

[Myfrotho704_]

What a fookin beauty

 

[Chandler]

hrrr'd

 

[SouthSideYankee]

What a fookin beauty View attachment 68180

Was just about to say the 18z looks nice.

 

[superjames1992]

Big change on the HRRR. Almost has me worried about being too far north. But the HRRR is trash, so whatever. ?

 

[NCSNOW]

Oh to get back to back thumps ,3 days apart. Been to long since that happened. Still sitting here in the 30s today. If only it was wed at 3pm instead.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Webb’s take, I agree !!

 

[NCSNOW]

sidenote we need sunday miller B to do this incremental steps futher south two step. Maybe the block will work its magic one more time like wed night event

 

[accu35]

What area will be the longest duration of snow? I was heading to Gatlinburg but now I'm not sure. This will be my last chase of the season so I want to go where it will be worth it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM about to come in and crash the party probably lol, let’s see what it does

 

[Ollie Williams]

NAM about to come in and crash the party probably lol, let’s see what it does

Well, it was already bad, so it either stays the same or gets better.

 

[olhausen]

Good grief man,why are the models so far apart?

gfs12z


Euro12z

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM is still eh but it did beef up precip vs last run

 

[Rain Cold]

Good grief man,why are the models so far apart?

gfs12z

View attachment 68186View attachment 68187
Euro12z
View attachment 68188View attachment 68189

Placement is almost identical, so we've got that going for us!

 

[Brick Tamland]

Good grief man,why are the models so far apart?

gfs12z

View attachment 68186View attachment 68187
Euro12z
View attachment 68188View attachment 68189

And the same thing for Sunday's storm, except reversed.

 

[Metwannabe]

NAM is still eh but it did beef up precip vs last run View attachment 68195View attachment 68196View attachment 68197

So as @SD first mentioned differences in the mid-levels and this run took a step towards the GFS and thus slight improvement. I'll take it

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

FWIW I do you think the HRRR did do a lot better than the nam joo with the graupel and snow event A couple weeks ago

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well that’s a difference 12z
18z

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’m thinking the NAMs will adjust to more precip over time ??‍

 

[Brick Tamland]

NAM might slowly be coming around to the GFS.

 

[LukeBarrette]

NAM might slowly be coming around to the GFS.

I believe that the nam will meet the gfs in the middle. Obviously Nam is too low and Gfs is too high.