packfan98
Moderator
Allan Huffman’s call map.
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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Nomanslandva
Member
Guess my guys like the NAMs.
Tonight
Rain and snow likely before 11pm, then snow. Low around 28. Northwest wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tonight
Rain and snow likely before 11pm, then snow. Low around 28. Northwest wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
That aligns closely with the latest RAP.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like it increased totals by at least an inch. Euro looking better, and the other models are holding steady. NAM is out to lunch. I think at least 3 inches for my neck of the woods.
The NAM still bothers me to some point. It has increased QPF but it's still not anything worth wild (snow - half to 1" maybe). In a couple of hours we'll have a look at the 12z; hopefully it shows another increase.
I don't feel great about the south side of the snow at all. Looks like it's going to be a tight gradient between accumulation and ending as a few flakes and I think I'm going to be on the ending as a few flakes side
Come on NC! Rooting for y’all.
Yep agree. Once I saw the HrrrRrR tick north with the main axis of accums, the writing was kind of on the wall for me. Models usually tend to see the delayed cooling around the 36-24 hour mark, thus adjusting the totals down across the southern areas. I still think a dusting look doable. Maybe an inch or so across the northern part of Wake.
LickWx
Member
The 0C line is north of 64 and around the 401 /us1 corridor on the Gfs now for wake . Been creeping north . Anyways , I may have to take away your pants bursting alert .
Imma see wake forest with a couple inches and I’ll be enjoying a few flakes , not even enough to cover the grass. That’s how it goes normally .
MichaelJ
Member
As per usual, Roxboro will be the jackpot zone. GFS is WAY over amped on the precip amounts while the NAM is underdone on the QPF. Anybody in the northern counties and SE of there will do well. Unfortunately it looks like Charlotte Metro may miss out
Fountainguy97
Member
FYI hrrr has been sneakily raising temps across the area the past several runs. Most of TN has gone from 2-4 to a dusting...
Hopefully we don’t see the same for you guys.
Hopefully we don’t see the same for you guys.
MichaelJ
Member
Then again, I was wrong about this thing moving way North the other day and it is more creeping North than flying North like I thought
LickWx
Member
Looks like it’s raising temps for here as well. Biggest bust potential on the low side for southern wake south . Still thing northern wake north look good , could eat into accums though, 1-3 instead of the modeled 4-5 lol. We will see , 12 hours from now would be nowcasting time .
Looks like a typical setup where the winners win around here. Meh
Shaggy
Member
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
HRRR much worse for the CLT areas.
Yeah on one hand I have some optimism that we can get some banding going which may allow us to over perform but the ticking warmer and north with the better fgen makes me think that won't happen
Waiting for MYFRO to post that sexy gif of the future cast HRRR paste bomb
If I lived along hwy 158 from reidsville to @metwannabe I would be pooping in excitement this morning
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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SouthGarnerSleet
Member
Indeed I started to believe yesterday and thought maybe we could get 2-3 maybe 4. Unfortunately reality shows again
smast16
Member
It's good to see the NW trend still alive and kicking in right on cue.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I wouldn't get too excited if I were some of the areas in eastern nc. It's been shifting east like crazy that last couple of runs.
smast16
Member
I'm danger close to that Western limit, and in this setup, that is NOT GOOD!
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
That is where I was at on the 06z run. Now it shifted over your way. I don't like that trend for many people.
I certainly do think there could be a cutoff west of Forsyth, Davidson, and Randolph county. The RGEM has it:
Yeah, I’m not excited. Think it’s going to be too warm. Life north of the Albemarle Sound and just west of the Atlantic Ocean.
The 6.6” is basically over my place. Jackpot! modernweenie
Glad to see the Euro cave. I’m encouraged, though still mildly concerned about all this. I’d love to see a nice 1-3”/2-4” type event, though I’m trying to keep my expectations in check......
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
mehhhhhh.... I wouldnt go all in on a NW trend yet...
Many pieces alive and kicking strong for Wake/Franklin counties. I actually think Franklin County and North Wake are in great spots.
Shaggy
Member
Anyone got a ukmet clown map from 0z?
We did get a WWA out of AKQ. They think a slushy inch is POSSIBLE... key word being possible.
Yeah, I feel a little more comfortable here in Durham than I would at my parents’ in Greensboro. Then again, climo being climo, I probably shouldn’t since it’ll probably take forever to changeover here while it hammers in the Triad for hours. ?