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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Doesn’t the UKMET have a warm bias at the surface? Something to maybe keep in mind. Then again, that may be something that was true 15 years ago, but isn’t as true I’m 2021.
 
WeatherBuddy21 said:
To be fair the NAM screwed us last year. Predicted 6 + and we got maybe 2"
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This one will live in infamy with me. It tempers my weeniedom with model promises still.

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superjames1992 said:
Doesn’t the UKMET have a warm bias at the surface? Something to maybe keep in mind. Then again, that may be something that was true 15 years ago, but isn’t as true I’m 2021.
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I last read up on its biases and it struggles with Low level cold, but I think that’s more like for example southern plains shallow cold front setups and CAD setups
 
KyloG said:
It seems the globals (ICON/GFS/Para/UK) all agree on heavier precip in NC...would like to see the NAM's get that right and then see what they show.
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I remember the NAM used to really overdo the precip, and they tweaked it not long ago. Maybe it's overcorrecting now. Getting precip here hasn't been a problem going back to last year.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I last read up on its biases and it struggles with Low level cold, but I think that’s more like for example southern plains shallow cold front setups and CAD setups
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Gotcha. I’m just always a little doubtful of the BL keeping us as rain. Provided enough precip, I would truly expect rates to overcome in such a situation, though it could cost a tenth or two of QPF. Of course, if precip itself is marginal, that could literally cost us everything.

I just can’t really think of any examples of where BL temps cost us a major storm. They can hurt (for one, the snow will accumulate poorer), but usually aren’t fatal.

Regarding accumulations, warm BL temps and a wet ground won’t be doing us any favors, though. And I doubt soil temps are very cold, either. At least it’ll be falling overnight with the sun down.
 
Interesting trends on 12z models. We have a growing camp of models supporting the gfs QPF scenario. The only dry models are the HRRR and NAM both of which can be too dry in this range. Every other 12z model closely mirrors the GFS qpf output.

The problem inside the higher qpf camp is mosts models are just too warm at the surface for snow. If the CMC/RGEM/UK were colder they would look exactly like the GFS.

But overall I am extremely wary. The last storm a few weeks ago I had a model average of 5.8 inches of snow 12 hrs out and ended up with hardly a flake.

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Fountainguy97 said:
Interesting trends on 12z models. We have a growing camp of models supporting the gfs QPF scenario. The only dry models are the HRRR and NAM both of which can be too dry in this range. Every other 12z model closely mirrors the GFS qpf output.

The problem inside the higher qpf camp is mosts models are just too warm at the surface for snow. If the CMC/RGEM/UK were colder they would look exactly like the GFS.

View attachment 68111
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Then its gonna come down temp biases I would think
 
SD said:
I guess really there's 3 camps here, dry nam, wet cooler gfs, wet warmer cmc/uk/icon
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And probably the middle ground Euro with not as NAM dry but not as GFS wet cooler light event.... I know need to see it and stop speculating haha
 
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