Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Geeeez GEFS

While this looks similar to the 06z run. The axis of the bigger snow totals shifted south a pretty good bit

 

[Metwannabe]

View attachment 68068

Lol autocorrect thinks para should be parade.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Geeeez GEFS

Lol 100% chance of > 1 in

 

[Rain Cold]

Thanks. I didn't see that one as the paraLLEL when you posted it the first time.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Lol 100% chance of > 1 in
View attachment 68081View attachment 68082View attachment 68083

This is absolutely nuts, wtf is going on!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

As much as I want the GFS/GEFS to be right because it’s good for MBY, I’m with the NAM.

 

[Chazwin]

As much as I want the GFS/GEFS to be right because it’s good for MBY, I’m with the NAM.

Yeah, it’s really difficult to have any faith in the GFS when we’re in the NAM’s range now.

 

[Stormdoc]

Maybe wishcasting here, but with our last event the NAM also had very little precip up until about 36 hrs, then started beefing it up. Let’s see how it trends

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Cmc

 

[Ollie Williams]

Maybe wishcasting here, but with our last event the NAM also had very little precip up until about 36 hrs, then started beefing it up. Let’s see how it trends

It did a really good job with predicting the dry slot for the front end stuff. I think it was a little too dry with the back-end snow though.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

To be fair the Rgem matches the gfs with qpf but it’s just a lot warmer.
Looks like gfs family and rgem vs the rest.

Yes, it does. My thing with the RGEM is that it's below freezing at 850mb(where all the forcing is occurring), but it still has rain for much of the state because the surface and boundary temperatures are a little too warm...could it be underestimating the dynamic cooling processes or is it just a bit too warm near the surface? Unfortunately the 12z HRRR agrees with the RGEM that it's too warm for the southern half of the state.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

This is the most realistic solution imo. At least the area of snow.

 

[NCSNOW]

Maybe wishcasting here, but with our last event the NAM also had very little precip up until about 36 hrs, then started beefing it up. Let’s see how it trends

Bingo. Happend several other times. But todays 12z is where its strung the energy out some.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here’s the CAMs btw

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The NBM looks very very realistic here

 

[smast16]

GFS doing GFS things..

View attachment 68064

Lol
View attachment 68066

 

[SD]

The NBM looks very very realistic here View attachment 68096

Agreed. I'd love to jump on the gfs but until something really backs it up this seems much more realistic

 

[Downeastnc]

Agreed. I'd love to jump on the gfs but until something really backs it up this seems much more realistic

4-6" might fall but if we dont get the surface to freezing then it will be a struggle to get meaningful accumulation.....timing wise works for us a bit overnight but still need that GFS 30 temp to be legit....

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Rap really likes the triad

 

[Myfrotho704_]