i smell a deform band somewhere, but where is the question 
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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
Weve come a long ways. Stole this storm back from VA,DC. They will get cloudy skies at best now.
Never got the HP over top,but storm track suppressed south enough we got a shot. The last piece to the puzzle is to get this thing reved up,more energy the merrier. If it ho hums through here and the first 50 miles off shore before deepening,then its not gonna do anything but spit out white rain. But if it can get loaded like the gfs twins sugest, a few will get their brown yards covered with a few inches..
Never got the HP over top,but storm track suppressed south enough we got a shot. The last piece to the puzzle is to get this thing reved up,more energy the merrier. If it ho hums through here and the first 50 miles off shore before deepening,then its not gonna do anything but spit out white rain. But if it can get loaded like the gfs twins sugest, a few will get their brown yards covered with a few inches..
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Stole from va?? You mean northern Va?! SW va is going to get hammered lol.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It's funny how the GFS is showing a bigger storm than the Euro for NC with this system, but the next system the Euro is showing a bigger storm than the GFS.
olhausen
Member
Oh how I wish for the gfs to be right. Hopefully someone will get a surprise with this one. Pretty crazy though to see totals improve this close to the event. We all know to well it usually trends the wrong way. Nam was over 2 inches here for 2 runs in a row but the recent run sucks. Good luck to the North Carolina peeps!
GFS 12z
12z NAM
GFS 12z
12z NAM
Euro went boom
Nice trends
Ji meltdown in 3...2...1...
no chance for us charlotte metro folks but the rest of nc looks in a good spot.
znel52
Member
USA! USA! USA! ???? Hope these models aren't setting us up for a last minute rug pull.
That would be the NAM. It always does.
He's looking at 2 feet plus of digital snow from the next storm so I wouldn't want to disturb him...lol.
Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk
packfan98
Moderator
How did it trend from prior runs? Still looks pretty weak.
Shaggy
Member
Just gonna have to hope we see an increase in Qpf as we get closer.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Man I miss eric! I think that's a great map
Yeah, it is weak sauce and disappointing. Biggest amounts on the members around 2 inches or so but most are less than an inch. Hopefully the next one will be a bigger deal.
Hrrr is a death band 
What a fookin beauty 
hrrr'd
SouthSideYankee
Member
Was just about to say the 18z looks nice.
Big change on the HRRR. Almost has me worried about being too far north. But the HRRR is trash, so whatever. ?
NCSNOW
Member
Oh to get back to back thumps ,3 days apart. Been to long since that happened. Still sitting here in the 30s today. If only it was wed at 3pm instead.
Webb’s take, I agree !!
NCSNOW
Member
sidenote we need sunday miller B to do this incremental steps futher south two step. Maybe the block will work its magic one more time like wed night event
NAM about to come in and crash the party probably lol, let’s see what it does
Well, it was already bad, so it either stays the same or gets better.
olhausen
Member
Good grief man,why are the models so far apart?
gfs12z
Euro12z
gfs12z
Euro12z
NAM is still eh but it did beef up precip vs last run 
Placement is almost identical, so we've got that going for us!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
And the same thing for Sunday's storm, except reversed.
So as @SD first mentioned differences in the mid-levels and this run took a step towards the GFS and thus slight improvement. I'll take it
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
FWIW I do you think the HRRR did do a lot better than the nam joo with the graupel and snow event A couple weeks ago
Well that’s a difference 
12z
18z
12z18z
I’m thinking the NAMs will adjust to more precip over time ??
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
NAM might slowly be coming around to the GFS.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
I believe that the nam will meet the gfs in the middle. Obviously Nam is too low and Gfs is too high.