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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread

Shaggy said:
Seemed like it rolled for 15 seconds with a couple of deep booms in the mix. Was pretty awesome. In all heard maybe 2 closer ones and 3 off in the distance.
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Yeah I think the house shook one time. Pretty awesome. Now, we'll wait for the snow. You are in a good spot, I think.
 
There's some noticeable differences in the mid levels between the GFS/NAM&Euro which is probably driving the more banded, heavier gfs
 
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KyloG said:
I wonder what the Euro would look like if it had as heavy a precip as the GFS.

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Provided the heavier precip wasn't a result of a more amped with more WAA it would look much better, I'm just not sure we get the kind of precip the GFS is showing and cold air through the column too. Hope I'm wrong
 
metwannabe said:
Provided the heavier precip wasn't a result of a more amped with more WAA it would look much better, I'm just not sure we get the kind of precip the GFS is showing and cold air through the column too. Hope I'm wrong
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I’m with you. From what I’m seeing it doesn’t look like the models are correct. I know how the weather works in this area and I just think it’s going to be too warm.
 
SD said:
There's some noticeable differences in the mid levels between the GFS/NAM&Euro which is probably driving the more banded, heavier gfs
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I'm guessing the 850 low that travels through the state on the GFS and getting on the NW side of that doesn't hurt
 
So any word on whether KRAX will be back up and running in time for this event? It shutdown on the 21st and they said for 5-7 days, just curious on progress, I couldn't find an update.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
The NAM crushing our dreams.

Never thought I would be saying that phrase haha
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Yeah couldn't even get one good NAMing.... I'll not be surprised if qpf is higher than what it is showing however, doesn't seem to be the amped up over the top precip machine it once was. Still the GFSs are on an island
 
12z HRRR

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
HRRR slams the triad. Some things never change
 

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metwannabe said:
Yeah couldn't even get one good NAMing.... I'll not be surprised if qpf is higher than what it is showing however, doesn't seem to be the amped up over the top precip machine it once was. Still the GFSs are on an island
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The 12z HRRR is better (for the short range models).
Kuchera:
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Edit: I was 30 seconds too slow in posting.
 
0z Euro,6z GFS,6ZFVGFS, 12ZHRR. All Good Hits
V/S
12z Nam suite is weak sauce.

Noticing a trend here. See if it keeps up at 12z. Then we'll know NAM new bias of lower qpf at play.
 
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I decided to put together a call map here as almost all the models have some form of hit for TN, NC, and VA. Everything from an inch or so to 7" is the spread. I would go for the lighter amounts but not quite as low as the euro has. There will be more widespread of the lower end amounts but you will likely have a few isolated higher amounts within each area.
 
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