Doesn’t the UKMET have a warm bias at the surface? Something to maybe keep in mind. Then again, that may be something that was true 15 years ago, but isn’t as true I’m 2021.
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Wintry Jan 27-28 Snow Potential Official Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
This one will live in infamy with me. It tempers my weeniedom with model promises still.
blueheronNC
Member
GEFS members rarely show enough spread for tropical tracks during hurricane season. Way too much clustering. Presumably there could be similar issues here.
Seems to be more towards overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning to me.
I last read up on its biases and it struggles with Low level cold, but I think that’s more like for example southern plains shallow cold front setups and CAD setups
I'll just be glad when the euro runs to see if it supports the gfs or nam
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I remember the NAM used to really overdo the precip, and they tweaked it not long ago. Maybe it's overcorrecting now. Getting precip here hasn't been a problem going back to last year.
Gotcha. I’m just always a little doubtful of the BL keeping us as rain. Provided enough precip, I would truly expect rates to overcome in such a situation, though it could cost a tenth or two of QPF. Of course, if precip itself is marginal, that could literally cost us everything.
I just can’t really think of any examples of where BL temps cost us a major storm. They can hurt (for one, the snow will accumulate poorer), but usually aren’t fatal.
Regarding accumulations, warm BL temps and a wet ground won’t be doing us any favors, though. And I doubt soil temps are very cold, either. At least it’ll be falling overnight with the sun down.
Fountainguy97
Member
Interesting trends on 12z models. We have a growing camp of models supporting the gfs QPF scenario. The only dry models are the HRRR and NAM both of which can be too dry in this range. Every other 12z model closely mirrors the GFS qpf output.
The problem inside the higher qpf camp is mosts models are just too warm at the surface for snow. If the CMC/RGEM/UK were colder they would look exactly like the GFS.
But overall I am extremely wary. The last storm a few weeks ago I had a model average of 5.8 inches of snow 12 hrs out and ended up with hardly a flake.
The problem inside the higher qpf camp is mosts models are just too warm at the surface for snow. If the CMC/RGEM/UK were colder they would look exactly like the GFS.
But overall I am extremely wary. The last storm a few weeks ago I had a model average of 5.8 inches of snow 12 hrs out and ended up with hardly a flake.
Indeed, will be nice to see it on paper to stop the speculation
Shaggy
Member
Then its gonna come down temp biases I would think
I guess really there's 3 camps here, dry nam, wet cooler gfs, wet warmer cmc/uk/icon
smast16
Member
You see the isobars on Member 20? Say WUT???
Blizzard
Well the euro really does usually run drier than reality
Guess is a slushy inch or two. Nam is too dry and the GFS is too cold.
See that little orange spot at the north end of Wake, that's me. Got ~4" of sleet. I enjoyed it but man that was too close for me. As stated before, I would love to see a storm where the transition line was a couple of counties to the southeast.This one will live in infamy with me. It tempers my weeniedom with model promises still.
They should have tweeted back: "Look out the window." ;-)
Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk
I feel like this may even be too optimistic, but not a bad guess. I would be satisfied with it, I want to see sticking snow again. We’ll see the Doc’s latest prognosis shortly.
FTFY
NCSNOW
Member
Euro looks carbon copy to GFS out to 24. Southern piece is slower, behind the northern piece moreso on euro than GFS.
NCSNOW
Member
Hour 42 GFS was little more robust with energy
Euro looks better
?
NCSNOW
Member
Much better run snowfall wise ! 
Dern, I need a NW trend lol
NCSNOW
Member
10:1. Cant get Kuchera yet
GFS AMERICAN COUP
It was a joke guys..... chill Lol
NCSNOW
Member
Between Hours 30-36 is when the GFS Suites pick up on a little more energy at H5 compared to Euro. Not sure why, but they both look identical. So hopefully the euro catches a whiff of the gFS ,HRRR GO JUICE at this juncture.
We really want to see this thing rev up, bomb out. The more the better served we will all be. Track is pretty much set in stone at H5
We really want to see this thing rev up, bomb out. The more the better served we will all be. Track is pretty much set in stone at H5
Kuchera
The euro looked a tad bit further south at H5, wasn’t really a change in how amped it was either, interesting
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Well, being positive or negative about the chances isn't going to change what's going to happen, so might as well be positive. I like how the GFS has gotten better and better, the para GFS has stayed consistent, and the Euro is at least showing snow. I think this could end up being a pretty good storm.