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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
700 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 94.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 94.3 West. Harvey is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed during the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Harvey will approach
the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or
early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or just inland
of the middle Texas coast through the weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. While Harvey has changed little in strength
over the past few hours, strengthening is expected to resume during
the next few hours, and Harvey is expected to become a major
hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
Aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the
same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey will cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across portions of the
middle and upper Texas coast on Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN
 
Shawn said:
Big ole' burst of convection firing. Ru ro
Click to expand...
This is about to take off.... deep convection just getting started
meso1_13_20170825001525.jpg
 
Looks like mandatory evacuation for parts of Cameron Parish in Louisiana, though I don't know the details (per KATC, Lafayette)
 
pcbjr said:
Still very interested on what the NE "blob" may do - it could get wrapped in and explode this dude, or disrupt it, or it could stay on the periphery and stabilize him, or ...
Click to expand...
Blobs are the best thing it could have if you are looking for a strong storm. Remember last year with Matthew? Didn't It have a big companion moisture pool?
 
pcbjr said:
Still very interested on what the NE "blob" may do - it could get wrapped in and explode this dude, or disrupt it, or it could stay on the periphery and stabilize him, or ...
Click to expand...
I'm with you on that I've seen it before and can play a significant role either way, have seen these "blobs" stay right there and disrupt the system.... looks like it's helping keep the northern side "ragged" at the moment. I'm thinking it will feed the beast unfortunately... time will tell
 
ForsythSnow said:
Blobs are the best thing it could have if you are looking for a strong storm. Remember last year with Matthew? Didn't It have a big companion moisture pool?
Click to expand...
Yesssss and I was just looking back over my video from last year (as it seemed from recollection that was the case but didn't want to say so w/o verifying - since I was far more concerned with my own back yard than with a blob when Matthew got close) and was just about to say as much ... great catch! ;)

But - w/o going back through the archives to name a particular, I've seen those blobs wreak chaos ...
 
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metwannabe said:
I'm with you on that I've seen it before and can play a significant role either way, have seen these "blobs" stay right there and disrupt the system.... looks like it's helping keep the northern side "ragged" at the moment. I'm thinking it will feed the beast unfortunately... time will tell
Click to expand...
with you ... and I hope we're both wrong ...
 
Brent said:
GFS really escalating the intensity, maybe a more significant hurricane isn't unrealistic

Has a hurricane tomorrow evening!!! That is some strengthening lol
Click to expand...
Not singling out Brent but just to remind y'all where we were last night and really no one anticipated where we are now with Harvey
what a difference a day makes
 
Been announcing it all day. We will be turning on the live thread tomorrow morning meaning the posts will update automatically, no page refreshing. This will be for members only . If your not registered please take 30 seconds and sign up .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Been announcing it all day. We will be turning on the live thread tomorrow morning meaning the posts will update automatically, no page refreshing. This will be for members only . If your not registered please take 30 seconds and sign up .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Outstanding!! Seriously guest go register, you will not regret it and most of us don't bite I promise :cool:
 
On that blob - just ran into this



Although I seem to recall a blob north of Cuba as well (or was that simply an hallucination on the hurry up and get ready???)
 
The longer this takes to get it's core completely organized, the more concerned I get.

One hurricane I keep comparing this to in mind, did the same thing....
 
Anybody know how to post the mimic GIF from wisc.edu? I've tried and failed but it's awesome to look at
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 250132
AF307 1509A HARVEY HDOB 25 20170825
012300 2506N 09438W 6966 02932 9772 +142 //// 039043 045 076 011 01
012330 2507N 09439W 6973 02943 9798 +139 +139 039055 061 078 027 03
012400 2508N 09440W 6962 02975 9840 +134 +134 046073 077 068 039 00
012430 2510N 09441W 6948 03013 9859 +125 +125 043064 073 067 015 00
012500 2511N 09443W 6967 03003 9877 +122 +122 046061 063 065 014 00
012530 2512N 09444W 6962 03016 9891 +123 +123 056066 067 060 016 03
012600 2513N 09445W 6967 03025 9913 +121 +121 057065 068 060 017 00
012630 2515N 09447W 6963 03039 9924 +121 +121 063065 067 052 017 00
012700 2516N 09448W 6962 03054 9936 +118 +118 058059 067 054 010 00
012730 2517N 09449W 6964 03053 9948 +115 +115 059057 059 048 017 00
012800 2519N 09451W 6965 03057 9957 +115 +115 059055 057 047 018 03
012830 2520N 09452W 6961 03069 9964 +111 +111 061052 054 049 011 00
012900 2521N 09454W 6967 03070 9971 +110 +110 061052 052 049 009 03
012930 2523N 09455W 6961 03079 9974 +109 +109 055048 052 048 010 00
013000 2524N 09456W 6964 03079 9973 +110 +110 055048 050 041 010 00
013030 2525N 09458W 6958 03087 9972 +107 //// 061047 049 042 007 01
013100 2527N 09459W 6967 03082 9969 +101 //// 063045 050 040 005 05
013130 2528N 09501W 6963 03091 9984 +099 //// 066047 048 040 003 01
013200 2529N 09502W 6966 03087 9991 +106 +106 062048 049 044 014 00
013230 2531N 09503W 6949 03108 9996 +110 +110 054045 050 050 030 03
$$
;
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 250142
AF307 1509A HARVEY HDOB 26 20170825
013300 2532N 09505W 6976 03073 9990 +121 +121 053052 058 055 046 00
013330 2533N 09506W 6978 03075 9990 +121 +121 053045 055 056 046 00
013400 2535N 09507W 6967 03088 0005 +113 +113 057061 072 053 043 00
013430 2536N 09509W 6977 03083 0013 +109 +109 061061 073 048 039 00
013500 2537N 09510W 6963 03103 0028 +104 +104 052045 054 044 023 00
013530 2539N 09512W 6960 03109 0029 +102 +102 047041 043 044 017 00
013600 2540N 09513W 6968 03105 0032 +101 +101 046037 039 044 008 00
013630 2541N 09514W 6962 03117 0032 +099 +099 049039 040 042 007 00
013700 2543N 09516W 6964 03115 0035 +099 +099 046039 041 041 009 00
013730 2544N 09517W 6963 03119 0035 +097 +097 042035 040 041 009 00
013800 2545N 09518W 6963 03119 0037 +090 //// 043034 035 044 007 01
013830 2546N 09520W 6963 03123 0018 +094 //// 042037 038 042 004 05
013900 2548N 09521W 6963 03125 0007 +093 //// 041037 038 043 002 01
013930 2549N 09522W 6963 03123 0004 +092 //// 046037 037 042 003 01
014000 2550N 09524W 6963 03129 0013 +092 //// 048038 038 042 003 01
014030 2551N 09525W 6962 03130 //// +088 //// 050038 038 043 002 01
014100 2553N 09526W 6963 03130 0031 +087 //// 048038 039 042 004 01
014130 2554N 09528W 6964 03129 //// +090 //// 046039 040 041 003 01
014200 2555N 09529W 6962 03135 //// +091 //// 046040 041 040 004 01
014230 2557N 09530W 6963 03133 0018 +093 +093 042040 041 040 004 00
$$
;
 
Looking at the satellite loop, I think Harvey underwent an ERC, but I am not too certain. Was developing an eye, then stopped and closed up. Look at the IR satellite, and you will see the northern eyewall open up briefly. Now, it seems to be closing again as convection wraps around. More moisture is being fed into Harvey by this blob too. Pressure is dropping, as hurricane hunters have found, and the winds are stronger in the NE quadrant than in the last pass of the eye, so maybe we can expect this to loop around with the stronger convection and begin the RI again.
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 250152
AF307 1509A HARVEY HDOB 27 20170825
014300 2558N 09532W 6965 03131 0030 +088 //// 040039 041 037 005 01
014330 2559N 09533W 6961 03138 //// +089 //// 048036 039 037 002 01
014400 2600N 09534W 6963 03136 0023 +094 +090 050035 036 038 002 01
014430 2602N 09536W 6964 03137 0020 +095 +089 046035 035 037 002 00
014500 2603N 09537W 6965 03137 0023 +095 +082 042036 036 037 001 03
014530 2604N 09538W 6963 03138 0020 +100 +075 042036 036 034 001 00
014600 2605N 09540W 6964 03138 0021 +098 +071 043034 035 034 001 03
014630 2607N 09541W 6963 03138 0020 +101 +069 045034 034 034 001 03
014700 2608N 09542W 6965 03138 0022 +100 +071 043034 034 034 002 00
014730 2609N 09544W 6965 03138 0021 +100 +075 042032 034 034 000 00
014800 2610N 09545W 6962 03142 0015 +106 +072 040031 032 034 000 00
014830 2612N 09546W 6964 03140 0019 +102 +074 041031 031 034 001 00
014900 2613N 09548W 6962 03145 0020 +101 +079 040030 031 035 001 00
014930 2614N 09549W 6962 03142 0023 +100 +079 040030 031 035 002 00
015000 2616N 09551W 6963 03141 0028 +096 +080 041030 030 033 001 00
015030 2617N 09552W 6962 03144 0026 +098 +077 043030 031 031 000 03
015100 2618N 09553W 6962 03143 0026 +099 +074 045031 032 028 001 03
015130 2619N 09555W 6967 03145 0029 +102 +069 042028 031 029 001 03
015200 2618N 09557W 6961 03156 0034 +100 +063 041026 026 /// /// 03
015230 2617N 09556W 6966 03141 0029 +100 +064 036024 026 022 002 03
$$
;
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looking at the satellite loop, I think Harvey underwent an ERC, but I am not too certain. Was developing an eye, then stopped and closed up. Look at the IR satellite, and you will see the northern eyewall open up briefly. Now, it seems to be closing again as convection wraps around. More moisture is being fed into Harvey by this blob too. Pressure is dropping, as hurricane hunters have found, and the winds are stronger in the NE quadrant than in the last pass of the eye, so maybe we can expect this to loop around with the stronger convection and begin the RI again.
Click to expand...
For the sake of those folks in Texas, it would be fine if this simply turned itself into a late August thunderstorm (we've had our fun watching and postulating; now it's population to consider), but FS, I fear you are right about possible RI ... :confused:
 
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