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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

packfan98 said:
That's interesting. I keep wondering why there isn't a stronger feed of cold dry air based on the setup. This is not insitu-cad, and the HP is pretty locked in compared to many systems we track. My brain keeps telling me that the surface temps should respond on the modeling and tick down in successive model suites as the storm draws closer. Any reasons to why the winds are wonky? @Webberweather53 do you have any ideas?
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Yeah I mean 1036+ near the US/Can border with a source air mass having dews below 0 typically you would think we could push into the low 20s even this far east with teens into the climo favored regions.
 
(I’m referring to upstate Sc when I ask this question) Just out of curiosity has there ever been an event where the forecast was completely wrong? Like calling for rain and nothing more and it ended up getting way colder than expected and we got winter weather? I know the models are usually not far off but do they ever bust big?
 
2 hour delay for Wilkes Christian school in miller’s creek. I overheard the call saying very little if any winter accumulations of any type will melt before 8am. This is the briefing they received from national weather service and tv met. I think it will be below freezing through lunch time but what do I know.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
2 hour delay for Wilkes Christian school in miller’s creek. I overheard the call saying very little if any winter accumulations of any type will melt before 8am. This is the briefing they received from national weather service and tv met. I think it will be below freezing through lunch time but what do I know.
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Thanks for the update. Will the dollar general be open tomorrow?
 
packfan98 said:
That's interesting. I keep wondering why there isn't a stronger feed of cold dry air based on the setup. This is not insitu-cad, and the HP is pretty locked in compared to many systems we track. My brain keeps telling me that the surface temps should respond on the modeling and tick down in successive model suites as the storm draws closer. Any reasons to why the winds are wonky? @Webberweather53 do you have any ideas?
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Snow cover is pretty anemic/non-existent south of the US-Canadian border, that certainly isn't helping us in that regard, allowing the low-level air mass to modify very quickly
 
Stephenb888 said:
(I’m referring to upstate Sc when I ask this question) Just out of curiosity has there ever been an event where the forecast was completely wrong? Like calling for rain and nothing more and it ended up getting way colder than expected and we got winter weather? I know the models are usually not far off but do they ever bust big?
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Too many times to count. The 2 biggest being in 1987. On 1-22-1987 it was supposed to be 90% rain south of highway 11. Much of the area got from 5-12 inches of snow from that. In Feb 1987 it was supposed to be all rain with a high around 40. What we got was 1-2 inches of sleet with temps going down into the mid 20's.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol, happens every single time.

I-95 corridor snow weenies from NYC-DC are screwed esp when they're already mixing on the GFS as its trending NW in the short-range.

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Ouch! We've all been on the bad end of the NW trend. When all of I-95 gets burned, there are millions of people it affects. I'm glad I'm not forecasting in those big cities. Too much pressure!
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Interesting we have been talking ice for many days (like 7). But the public receives a snow/sleet message with just a trace of ice from the national weather service. I can’t blame them you know they don’t look at any model guidance like we do. Kinda goes to show that these extreme ice maps that rarely verify are not even being considered by the national weather service up this way. Over 0.5” to 1.0” of ice but the forecast is for less than 0.1” for many.
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The NAM 3k on Pivotal for Roanoke has 1.2 QPF, .28 ZR and .4 snow. Mountains in the southern county get smoked with ZR though. Guess the model sees the valley as mostly rain. If it is colder, I am hoping for IP!
 
Nomanslandva said:
The NAM 3k on Pivotal for Roanoke has 1.2 QPF, .28 ZR and .4 snow. Mountains in the southern county get smoked with ZR though. Guess the model sees the valley as mostly rain. If it is colder, I am hoping for IP!
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I don't believe sleet is accounted for in the freezing rain or snow totals on Pivotal so I would think the rest should mostly be sleet with the exception of a little rain at the end.
 
Personally I don't see how you have a almost 1040 HP even further south near the US border, have strong confluence of CAD and have light moisture returns and not have a stronger push of cold air than what even the short range models are showing. To me this just has a potential bust on the high side written all over it. I am going to be paying attention today to the DPs and the location and strength of our HP.
 
iGRXY said:
Personally I don't see how you have a almost 1040 HP even further south near the US border, have strong confluence of CAD and have light moisture returns and not have a stronger push of cold air than what even the short range models are showing. To me this just has a potential bust on the high side written all over it. I am going to be paying attention today to the DPs and the location and strength of our HP.
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With a sfc event those are the keys, I'll be watching with you.
 
Avalanche said:
Wonder if anyone east of the Triad/Albemarle area should still be paying attention.
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I think there’s a chance we could get a glaze, but seems like it’s going to be a nonevent out our way. Even if there is some initial ZR, it seems unlikely to last long. Durham County is now technically under a WWA, but my point forecast just has rain in the forecast right now... Oh well, I don’t get much satisfaction out of freezing rain, anyways. Sleet would be nice, though.
 
Avalanche said:
Folks its not that sophisticated. Just look upstream and see what the surface temps and dews are doing.
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Yep my dp is 30+ right now. It if it’s gonna over perform it’s not gonna be wetbulbing with a lot of ice it’s gonna be in the sleet department.
 
superjames1992 said:
I think there’s a chance we could get a glaze, but seems like it’s going to be a nonevent out our way. Even if there is some initial ZR, it seems unlikely to last long. Durham County is now technically under a WWA, but my point forecast just has rain in the forecast right now... Oh well, I don’t get much satisfaction out of freezing rain, anyways. Sleet would be nice, though.
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Us Chatham Co. folk are more desperate. If its frozen, we'll take it.
 
Stephenb888 said:
(I’m referring to upstate Sc when I ask this question) Just out of curiosity has there ever been an event where the forecast was completely wrong? Like calling for rain and nothing more and it ended up getting way colder than expected and we got winter weather? I know the models are usually not far off but do they ever bust big?
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I can’t speak for the upstate but for the Charlotte area, and example of that would be January 1987. The NWS and local mets in Charlotte both called for the snow line to be well northwest of the city (pretty much a cold rain with snow confined to the mountains and foothills). Oddly enough Accuweather did the forecast for most of the local radio stations then and Joe Bastardi did the weather on air... he said the snow line would be southeast of the city and Charlotte would be in on the heavy snow. JB was right and the local mets were wrong as Charlotte ended up 7 inches from that storm
 
JHS said:
Too many times to count. The 2 biggest being in 1987. On 1-22-1987 it was supposed to be 90% rain south of highway 11. Much of the area got from 5-12 inches of snow from that. In Feb 1987 it was supposed to be all rain with a high around 40. What we got was 1-2 inches of sleet with temps going down into the mid 20's.
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That was a long time ago. 2000 was also a failure. These models are no great and suck past 5 days. But that kind of failure now is unlikely. And even if it did it'd be ZR. No chance at all for snow here.
 
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