Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Our wave hasn’t even been sampled yet.

phew ok I had to throw that out there.

NAM looked good. I would expect nothing less at this juncture. It gave us just enough to keep our local mets up late at night which is fun. They need to earn their keep.

 

[iGRXY]

That’s the 1st map I’ve seen someone put it that far south into Georgia

NE Georgia is very borderline for Rabun, Hart, and Stephens counties and they generally get CAD and hold onto CAD longer than model as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some ICE at least through those counties.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

i would watch how that dry slot progresses, could be a factor in lighter QPF, and something that results in more ice accretion, or less

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Dews right before the precip, a bit lower than last run, while those upper 20s are still sorta meh, you gotta remember this is a classical CAD, and Low level CAA from The CAD is still happening during the system, really helps to when you system is trending less amped
View attachment 57401

Surprising that those single and negative dews in the NE aren’t translating to teens further down the spine of the apps. Hmm

 

[RBR71]

Surprising that those single and negative dews in the NE aren’t translating to teens further down the spine of the apps. Hmm

Yet

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Surprising that those single and negative dews in the NE aren’t translating to teens further down the spine of the apps. Hmm

If we continue to slow and de-amplify the shortwave, we’re gonna allow time for some teen Dewpoints to develop, no joke

 

[iGRXY]

Has the ICON been able to start running yet?

 

[jackendrickwx]

GEFS

 

[ForsythSnow]

GEFS

Seeing more GA members popping up with ZR. Gotta watch those temps as we get closer.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Seeing more GA members popping up with ZR. Gotta watch those temps as we get closer.

Yep. A few even keep upstate SC/SW NC under ZR for 6+ hours

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Cedric on WYFF 4 is taking the conservative approach now. Ice north of 85. Says we just don’t know how far south that cold dry airmass will make it just yet.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GEFS

Literally split. Maybe a push south of 85. Maybe not. Total toss up.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC remains the same, it’s consistently showing this presentation since lasts nights 00z
While I do think it’s a tad to cold, this colder look makes sense given a earlier transfer, and on the backside of a low which helps drive in CAA in sync with CAD

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

CMC remains the same, it’s consistently showing this presentation since lasts nights 00z
While I do think it’s a tad to cold, this colder look makes sense given a earlier transfer, and on the backside of a low which helps drive in CAA in sync with CAD View attachment 57406View attachment 57407

Back in the day we gave the CMC the nod on CAD events because of its cold bias. Maybe that’s still true. CAD is always underdone at this lead so when the CMC overdoes the cold it’s usually close.

 

[jjwxman]

Hey all, first post on this Forum. Great, professional conversations, and information.

Here’s something I’m tossing around in my head... Freezing rain and 28F vs freezing rain and 31F are very different events because the latter accrues slower due to run off. (correct me if I’m wrong). So I’m using caution for now on the ice accrual maps. Not sure why it matters for me... I’m 15 miles south of GSO where it’s going to be 32.4 and rain anyway. Lol


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[Ethan80963]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 57408View attachment 57409

I know it accounts IP but what about ZR ?

 

[SnowNiner]

i would watch how that dry slot progresses, could be a factor in lighter QPF, and something that results in more ice accretion, or less View attachment 57402

Euro kinda looked like a strung out mess imo. Wonder if gfs starting to see it too.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC is trending close to a little event next week as well after the miller B...

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

View attachment 57408View attachment 57409

That would have to account for freezing rain. If not that would be a lot of IP

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[iGRXY]

I know it accounts IP but what about ZR ?

I think it’s just IP and snow, not freezing rain.

 

[Ethan80963]

I know it accounts IP but what about ZR ?

Looking at p type maps it looks like it’s mainly ZR with some members having pockets of IP.

 

[Ollie Williams]

The GEFS was a major decrease for the NE.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The GEFS was a major decrease for the NE.
View attachment 57414
View attachment 57416

Now that’s some good stuff

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Icon finally ran and it was colder

 

[SnowNiner]

Now that’s some good stuff

Except if it's because of an upstream issue that also effects us, like a weaker or faster storm. Anybody got the 18z eps qpf for this storm?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Except if it's because of an upstream issue that also effects us, like a weaker or faster storm. Anybody got the 18z eps qpf for this storm?

Oops you said EPS hold up

 

[Clem282340]

Icon finally ran and it was colder

How much colder

 

[iGRXY]

Icon had a beautiful track and had nearly a 1040 HP. Temperatures now had the freezing line close to the NC/SC border and the upstate was between 33-35 degrees. That’s scary as that would’ve been a severe ice storm without the warm bias.

 

[SnowNiner]

View attachment 57417
Oops you said EPS hold up

Thank you. Eps is pretty rock solid when it comes to qpf amounts. Something to watch nws said this was going to be a quick storm limiting it's impact. Upward of .5 inches isn't bad though.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

hey @Ollie Williams could you get the comparison from 12z to 18z for QPF in the EPS ? Weathermodels doesn’t have the “mean” just the percentiles, t.i.a

 

[Ollie Williams]

hey @Ollie Williams could you get the comparison from 12z to 18z for QPF in the EPS ? Weathermodels doesn’t have the “mean” just the percentiles, t.i.a

Here you go, it looks like a drop.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here you go, it looks like a drop.
View attachment 57419

Should be interesting to see if euro trends colder from its 18z run or stays the same

 

[SnowNiner]

Here you go, it looks like a drop.
View attachment 57419

Wow, big drop for the southern piedmont. Thanks. Less and less of an issue for clt. Temps and qpf just not there yet.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro still warmest

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Honestly don’t know what to think here, GFS/CMC/GEFS/CMCE all have the same idea while the euro has a more amped up SW with less confluence, it’s kinda of on a Island right now
I know some models are cold biased but there quite a bit more favorable for a event synoptically, the euro just doesn’t look as good at H5

 

[BIG FROSTY]

Euro still warmest View attachment 57424

How warm? What did the earlier frames look like?


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[superjames1992]

I find the inland LP tracks a little suspect with the CAD present.

 

[Webberweather53]

Wow, big drop for the southern piedmont. Thanks. Less and less of an issue for clt. Temps and qpf just not there yet.

I definitely wouldn't say that, lighter and lower QPF often means more ice accrual efficiency and slower erosion of the CAD dome for areas below freezing as less latent heating is used to convert liquid to ice.