• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Ostrich December

BufordWX said:
Gotta love this blocking.View attachment 53381
Click to expand...

I honestly like to see this more on the onset of winter (like what is happening now) the Greenland blocking is so negative the SER is all the way in Puerto Rico. The gravy train in the southeast is beginning and a possible amplified STJ late in December has me excited for February and March.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's the 2nd wave the board has been talking about for a little while, & the one that has the potential to become a deep cutoff upper low at some pt down the line
Click to expand...

I was being a little sarcastic there but it did look ominous, whereas I thought it was being discussed as a minute feature. A long traverse across the gulf/southern states.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
And dry except for the days it warms up just enough to rain lol
Click to expand...
Rule number 1 in forecasting. Don’t rely on Op runs of models 10 days out regarding storm tracks or precip. Just see the pattern. And the pattern is fantastic for the south East for early December. Our best window is always mid Jan through early March. Enjoy the ride
 
As I've stated numerous times previously here, the +PNA pattern we're gonna be basking in during the first week of December will probably begin to morph into -EPO and look a lot more like a classic La Nina as we move deeper into the 2nd week of December or so & the SE US ridge may try to make a come back at some point before we reach mid month (Dec 15th) imo, but should be a fun ride leading up to then no doubt.

West Pacific forcing begins to really rear its ugly head in the first week of the month, usually taking a week or more for the mid-latitudes to respond and adjust accordingly

1606240731769.png


1606240741160.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
As I've stated numerous times previously here, the +PNA pattern we're gonna be basking in during the first week of December will probably begin to morph into -EPO and look a lot more like a classic La Nina as we move deeper into the 2nd week of December or so & the SE US ridge may try to make a come back at some point before we reach mid month (Dec 15th) imo, but should be a fun ride leading up to then no doubt.

West Pacific forcing begins to really rear its ugly head in the first week of the month, usually taking a week or more for the mid-latitudes to respond and adjust accordingly

View attachment 53404


View attachment 53405
Click to expand...
That could be interesting if we get a -NAO as it was alluded to on Paul Roundy's map.
 
Ollie Williams said:
That could be interesting if we get a -NAO as it was alluded to on Paul Roundy's map.
Click to expand...

Yeah, if we get a stronger -NAO response as we approach mid-December, then the SE US ridge will get squashed and that opens us up to getting smacked by truly deep arctic air masses from Siberia & the Arctic, instead of the continental polar ones that originate from south-central Canada as we'll see in the coming 2 weeks. The paper I linked to yesterday highlights the stronger phase 6/7 MJO >>> -NAO relationship in westerly QBO winters like we're in now due to the stronger N Pacific jet.
 
Webberweather53 said:
As I've stated numerous times previously here, the +PNA pattern we're gonna be basking in during the first week of December will probably begin to morph into -EPO and look a lot more like a classic La Nina as we move deeper into the 2nd week of December or so & the SE US ridge may try to make a come back at some point before we reach mid month (Dec 15th) imo, but should be a fun ride leading up to then no doubt.

West Pacific forcing begins to really rear its ugly head in the first week of the month, usually taking a week or more for the mid-latitudes to respond and adjust accordingly

View attachment 53404


View attachment 53405
Click to expand...

I wonder with we can maybe get another period of favorable tropical forcing again in a month that’s normally not favored (later Jan and feb)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I wonder with we can maybe get another period of favorable tropical forcing again in a month that’s normally not favored (later Jan and feb)
Click to expand...

Yea HM has been pushing for another favorable surge in subseasonal forcing to emerge sometime in early-mid January or so roughly.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top