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Ostrich December

I take that back. Gfs definitely Is there for the mountains and even east on the mountains when the ULL swings through

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6z
gfs_asnow_seus_48.png
 
Avalanche said:
Maybe the southern apps can cash in like dec 2018. Marginal temps but enough to get you a foot in higher elevations and a decent amount in the foothills [hickory, old fort, lenoir, adako]
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14 inches in 8 hours best storm since 93 imby.
 
ForsythSnow said:
But there's a clear idea by at least half the members. Sure only 2 nice ones for areas like TN and N Ga but still if there's snow in the Apps, there's a system.
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Also just looking at soundings, areas east of the mountains in the SC upstate and NC Piedmont that are showing rain, the soundings are supportive of wet snow.
 
SD said:
I know all the focus is on early December but I am intrigued by the evolution of this toward the 2nd week/mid December. Can we eventually get enough PNA that we can kidney bean/lobe the PV into the Hudson Bay region before the wheels fall off?
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SD said:
One thing about Nina's you can get much more impressive cold than Ninos.

Good to see you guys catching on to me saying I'll take my chances with a weak nina
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That comment you made a while back about Nina's is looking pretty good!
 
SD said:
I know all the focus is on early December but I am intrigued by the evolution of this toward the 2nd week/mid December. Can we eventually get enough PNA that we can kidney bean/lobe the PV into the Hudson Bay region before the wheels fall off?
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Subseasonal signals point to this PNA ridge retrograding towards Alaska as we approach mid December w/ possible return of the SE US ridge, which would be favored even from a dynamics standpoint if this ridge becomes particularly intense. However, prior to that point, as the pattern is retrogressing and potentially evolving towards more of a -EPO instead of a +PNA, we certainly could see he famed +TNH/+PNA/active subtropical jet pattern start to materialize on the horizon and is a setup that often leads to big, widespread overrunning events. In any case, if we are really cold initially & have some good snow cover around south of the Great Lakes, the shift to a SE US ridge may come w/ a side of onset ice >>> Feb 4 2018 for ex.

February 4 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah you can definitely get colder in Ninas than Ninos but this is not the way you're supposed to do that lmao.
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Yeah we need an amplified pattern with a ridge up the west coast , Alaska and to the pole with big troughs coming down the plains . Instead we have a giant ridge covering the entirety of Canada .
 
As crazy as this sound, when you see sub -10C 850s passing over warm area lakes in early-mid winter w/ enough deep-layer moisture laying around (& large enough lakes to generate a strong moisture fetch), you actually start running into the risk for seeing lake effect snow downwind of places like Lake Kerr, Gaston, & possibly even Lanier in NE Georgia.

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Webberweather53 said:
As crazy as this sound, when you see sub -10C 850s passing over warm area lakes in early-mid winter w/ enough deep-layer moisture laying around (& large enough lakes to generate a strong moisture fetch), you actually start running into the risk for seeing lake effect snow downwind of places like Lake Kerr, Gaston, & possibly even Lanier in NE Georgia.

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Rare but certainly not unheard of.....
 
Webberweather53 said:
As crazy as this sound, when you see sub -10C 850s passing over warm area lakes in early-mid winter w/ enough deep-layer moisture laying around (& large enough lakes to generate a strong moisture fetch), you actually start running into the risk for seeing lake effect snow downwind of places like Lake Kerr, Gaston, & possibly even Lanier in NE Georgia.

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Why -10C? Well, 850mb height surface is roughly (just less than) 1km above the ground, to produce an absolutely unstable profile that is capable of generating convection, you need lapse rates >-8C/km, if your lakes aren't frozen (which they certainly aren't here), and the wind fetch is close to being parallel to the long axis of a major lake or body of water, you definitely can get mini lake effect snow bands! We just rarely see 850s that cold down here so the profiles aren't unstable enough, but that could certainly change in a big way next week.
 
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