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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

avlsnow said:
I don’t know about other areas around the SE but the last 2 weak niñas (2016-17 and 2017-18) have brought decent snow to my area - Much better than this past winter. So I’m cautiously looking forward to this.
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for sure. La Niña≠ 100% scorch. the 17-18 season is a great example of this. You can still see 4-6week periods of good cold during La Niña. Especially weak ones.
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Fountainguy97 said:
for sure. La Niña≠ 100% scorch. the 17-18 season is a great example of this. You can still see 4-6week periods of good cold during La Niña. Especially weak ones.
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Yeah it brought that horrifying once in a lifetime cold snap for neastern NC . Don’t remind me . I mean what the hell was that now you have me in a horrendous mood . Think first half was coldest January start ever Or close to it here .
 
Fountainguy97 said:
for sure. La Niña≠ 100% scorch. the 17-18 season is a great example of this. You can still see 4-6week periods of good cold during La Niña. Especially weak ones.
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The second most snow I've ever got in 10 years at this house happened with that clipper that pivoted in mid January. Something like 4.7 inches. Cold snap was great too, down to 14F here
 
Lickwx said:
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Yeah it brought that horrifying once in a lifetime cold snap for neastern NC . Don’t remind me . I mean what the hell was that now you have me in a horrendous mood . Think first half was coldest January start ever Or close to it here .
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I dunno man, it sure was un-godly cold, but I totally weenied out and drove around to all the local ponds and walked on them. Why? Cuz I could!
 
Been a foggy August so far. Season changing quickly can tell with the bugs chirping in the evenings and mornings
 
smast16 said:
I dunno man, it sure was un-godly cold, but I totally weenied out and drove around to all the local ponds and walked on them. Why? Cuz I could!
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that week was some of most severe winter weather I’ve ever been in. Good snow but the story was the cold after the storm.

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Neuse River froze for the first time in
years.
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Ponds in Greenville were thick enough to walk and drive 4wheelers on.

We got YELLED at right after this by some guy?

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Albemarle sound was actually completely frozen off from the ocean for several days.
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SD said:
One thing about Nina's you can get much more impressive cold than Ninos.

Good to see you guys catching on to me saying I'll take my chances with a weak nina
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I remember studying up on the long range patterns for the ‘17-18 winter. A lot of my mind wanted to write it off since it was Niña but a lot of our analogs we found had a cold 3-5week period. Turns out that was right.

I’d take a 2-3 week period in a deep freezer over the extra rain an El Niño offers any day haha

Seems like weak ninas leave the door open for some good cold shots. Hopefully we see that materialize this winter but we HAVE to have the MJO cooperate with a weaker enso state. MJO will decide our fate.

Looking at MJO from the ‘17-18 you can see we passed through 8-2 to open January ‘18. Likely a huge factor to our cold January.A69FF7EE-B458-40DC-A9CA-264F0018BBFE.gif30013FF7-67A7-4977-8C5C-8D1632742653.gif
 
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From Larry Cosgrove on 8/8/20, something refreshing if you're tired of seeing cold after cold winter outlooks over the years that rarely verify. I was delightfully surprised not because this is what I want to verify but because I'm sick of seeing baseless cold mainly amateur forecasts and also because SE warmth has a good chance to verify well imo due to a combo of very warm Indonesian waters and continued GW though Mack's abode may very well be cold while the SE is mainly mild:

"A second longer-term issue is bad news for winter enthusiasts. Modeled and analog scenarios for the DJF period strongly favors a mostly warm winter except in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and occasionally the Great Lakes."
 
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GaWx said:
From Larry Cosgrove on 8/8/20, something refreshing if you're tired of seeing cold after cold winter outlooks over the years that rarely verify. I was delightfully surprised not because this is what I want to verify but because I'm sick of seeing baseless cold mainly amateur forecasts and also because SE warmth has a good chance to verify well imo due to a combo of very warm Indonesian waters and continued GW though Mack's abode may very well be cold while the SE is mainly mild:

"A second longer-term issue is bad news for winter enthusiasts. Modeled and analog scenarios for the DJF period strongly favors a mostly warm winter except in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and occasionally the Great Lakes."
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I think most in here know that. It's just hard for some to accept. We have way too much against us to be cold. I do think without el Nino influence we may can get a stronger cold shot or two over the last 2 winters, and maybe time a storm or two. Early to mid January being the best time. But colder than average? Not a chance imo.
 
DJF period mostly warm winter except in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and occasionally the Great Lakes." So nothing different since 2014.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I think most in here know that. It's just hard for some to accept. We have way too much against us to be cold. I do think without el Nino influence we may can get a stronger cold shot or two over the last 2 winters, and maybe time a storm or two. Early to mid January being the best time. But colder than average? Not a chance imo.
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El Nino influence actually favors colder winters vs non-El Nino on average. However, the very warm Indonesian waters have trumped Enso in recent years and look to continue to favor a dominant SER/warmer MJO phases/SE warmth regardless of ENSO. Add GW to the mix and warmth has to be favored for the SE:
 
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GaWx said:
From Larry Cosgrove on 8/8/20, something refreshing if you're tired of seeing cold after cold winter outlooks over the years that rarely verify. I was delightfully surprised not because this is what I want to verify but because I'm sick of seeing baseless cold mainly amateur forecasts and also because SE warmth has a good chance to verify well imo due to a combo of very warm Indonesian waters and continued GW though Mack's abode may very well be cold while the SE is mainly mild:

"A second longer-term issue is bad news for winter enthusiasts. Modeled and analog scenarios for the DJF period strongly favors a mostly warm winter except in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and occasionally the Great Lakes."
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I'll be very honest with you. I don't think there is any signal that really signals anything reliable when it comes to winter, especially in the SE. Maybe 10 years ago, you could have made a case for something, but not anymore. The climate here is heavily tilted towards warmer and less snow. As far as I'm concerned, you can throw out soil moisture, solar, ENSOs, QBOs, PDOs, AMOS, and whatever other Os you have in the arsenal. It is just going to be warm, and that is all there is to it. Hopefully, we can line up a window or two of cold and precip. But that's a dice roll.
 
GaWx said:
El Nino influence actually favors colder winters vs non-El Nino on average. However, the very warm Indonesian waters have trumped Enso in recent years and look to continue to favor a dominant SER/warmer MJO phases/SE warmth regardless of ENSO. Add GW to the mix and warmth has to be favored for the SE:
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So basically we just have to wait until the warm Indonesian waters to run its cycle? That might take decades. :(
 
Rain Cold said:
I'll be very honest with you. I don't think there is any signal that really signals anything reliable when it comes to winter, especially in the SE. Maybe 10 years ago, you could have made a case for something, but not anymore. The climate here is heavily tilted towards warmer and less snow. As far as I'm concerned, you can throw out soil moisture, solar, ENSOs, QBOs, PDOs, AMOS, and whatever other Os you have in the arsenal. It is just going to be warm, and that is all there is to it. Hopefully, we can line up a window or two of cold and precip. But that's a dice roll.
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As much as I would love to have a full 3 months of winter, I know that's not realistic here let alone Raleigh, Charlotte, Atlanta, etc. If I can squeeze out a few cold snaps and one snowstorm (at least 6 inches) I will be happy with the AN winter.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'll be very honest with you. I don't think there is any signal that really signals anything reliable when it comes to winter, especially in the SE. Maybe 10 years ago, you could have made a case for something, but not anymore. The climate here is heavily tilted towards warmer and less snow. As far as I'm concerned, you can throw out soil moisture, solar, ENSOs, QBOs, PDOs, AMOS, and whatever other Os you have in the arsenal. It is just going to be warm, and that is all there is to it. Hopefully, we can line up a window or two of cold and precip. But that's a dice roll.
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I don't really worry about where DJF is in relation to normal any more. I just enjoy the winter typically still being 30+ F colder and much less humid with no bugs vs the summer. It is a much more enjoyable season for me vs summer. No comparison even if it is a solidly warm winter. In addition, I love autumn once cooler and especially drier air increases in dominance.

In summary, I enjoy late fall and winter immensely more than summer regardless of how warm vs normal they may be. I enjoy being able to go outside without sweating plus all of the ups and downs from day to day along with no bugs, especially no mosquitos! The way lower power bills are just icing on the cake.
 
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Easy money this year is warmth. Not so easy money is figuring out if/when it will get cold. Think its another EPO dominated winter but we may see a couple of periods of scandy ridging and a potential to hedge the western ridge close enough to the US so that we do in fact get cold. Likely time periods are after Christmas through mid January and late Feb into March.
 
GaWx said:
From Larry Cosgrove on 8/8/20, something refreshing if you're tired of seeing cold after cold winter outlooks over the years that rarely verify. I was delightfully surprised not because this is what I want to verify but because I'm sick of seeing baseless cold mainly amateur forecasts and also because SE warmth has a good chance to verify well imo due to a combo of very warm Indonesian waters and continued GW though Mack's abode may very well be cold while the SE is mainly mild:

"A second longer-term issue is bad news for winter enthusiasts. Modeled and analog scenarios for the DJF period strongly favors a mostly warm winter except in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest, and occasionally the Great Lakes."
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Manager now!
 
SD said:
Easy money this year is warmth. Not so easy money is figuring out if/when it will get cold. Think its another EPO dominated winter but we may see a couple of periods of scandy ridging and a potential to hedge the western ridge close enough to the US so that we do in fact get cold. Likely time periods are after Christmas through mid January and late Feb into March.
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I'm thinking the same, with the exception of the time frames. I'd go early to mid-December and then mid to late-February for possible cold snaps.
 
Chazwin said:
I think this is the first time in 14 or 15 years he’s calling above normal on the East coast
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I hope he holds into a warm forecast for a change and joins LC’s warmth. But be wary of JB because this is only his preliminary and he unfortunately likes to replace noncold forecasts with cold as we get closer because he can’t resist. Keep in mind that he had cooled his initial forecast greatly last winter, which lead to a huge too cold bust like usual.
 
Sheets of sleets farmer almanac says I take tired of big snow I want ice to take down a forest
 
Why the hell would north eastern NC been in that zone vs western NC lmao
 
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