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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

WXinCanton said:
this popped up on my youtube. Have no clue how good the guy is. He is talking mostly about averages.
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I can assure you that most of the weather videos that show up on YouTube, produced by people you've never heard of, are crap.
 
Rain Cold said:
I can assure you that most of the weather videos that show up on YouTube, produced by people you've never heard of, are crap.
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Notwithstanding that I appreciate and can identify with the winter enthusiasm of these young folks. they're largely crap because they're almost always heavily biased cold and snowy in the Midwest and NE US, where most of these folks live. This one is, not surprisingly, no exception. Let me know when there's one that is warm and with BN snowfall in most of the E half of the US and I'll a) faint; and b) give them kudos for being different.

I'd much prefer to listen to what an unbiased pro met company, like Maxar, has. They're much more interested in accuracy and keep any weenie feelings out of their forecasts.

My latest feelings haven't changed. Whereas a weak La Nina (assuming we have it) isn't itself a warm indicator for the SE (it averages pretty neutral unlike the mean warmth from a mod to strong Nina), the very warm Indonesian waters very much favor warm MJO phases dominating like they have in recent winters. Combine that with a globe that continues to warm, I see no reason to not expect still another solidly AN winter in
the SE US/trend is our friend (or enemy in this case). I still expect, as happens every winter, a good number of cold and snowy winter forecasts because that's what wx hobbyists do.
 
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GaWx said:
Notwithstanding that I appreciate and can identify with the winter enthusiasm of these young folks. they're largely crap because they're almost always heavily biased cold and snowy in the Midwest and NE US, where most of these folks live. This one is, not surprisingly, no exception. Let me know when there's one that is warm and with BN snowfall in most of the E half of the US and I'll a) take note; and b) give them kudos for being different.

I'd much prefer to listen to what an unbiased pro met company, like Maxar, has. They're much more interested in accuracy and keep any weenie feelings out of their forecasts.

My latest feelings haven't changed. Whereas a weak La Nina (assuming we have it) isn't itself a warm indicator for the SE (it averages pretty neutral unlike the mean warmth from a mod to strong Nina), the very warm Indonesian waters very much favor warm MJO phases dominating like they have in recent winters. Combine that with a globe that continues to warm, I see no reason to not expect still another solidly AN winter in
the SE US/trend is our friend (or enemy in this case). I still expect, as happens every winter, a good number of cold and snowy winter forecasts because that's what wx hobbyists do.
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Given how this year has gone I wouldn't be surprised if we end up near average or slightly below for at least one or two months this winter. I'm feeling like we will be colder and drier than past winters given a more neutral nina.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Given how this year has gone I wouldn't be surprised if we end up near average or slightly below for at least one or two months this winter. I'm feeling like we will be colder and drier than past winters given a more neutral nina.
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We better get all the snow we can by mid-December.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Given how this year has gone I wouldn't be surprised if we end up near average or slightly below for at least one or two months this winter. I'm feeling like we will be colder and drier than past winters given a more neutral nina.
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If we can not get snow I'm hoping the entire winter will be a repeat of December 2015. That was a great month.
 
SD said:
This is true. I'm still probably in the minority with this but I'm excited about a potential weak nina or cold neutral. I'd much rather wait on clippers or coastals than see the Rn/sn line sitting in Durham with no shot
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I would rather wait on clippers than to spend 4 months with flooding rains.
 
We had one very nice snow event last year despite the crappiest MJO possible and with temps approaching (and making it in areas of NGA) the 100F mark in October so all it takes is one good anomalous event which they all seem to be here in the south lately.

That being said and just short of observing animal behavior and wooly worms (j/k) and certainly not looking at any indices which haven't amounted to squat as far as I am concerned, the summer pattern feels different to me this year being closer to normal heat and not starting early and hopefully not extending well into October like last year. Will it translate to winter? Probably not but I like the seemingly different pattern we have enjoyed this summer. Just the eternal optimist I guess. If you err on the side of heat and lower your expectations, you will likely not be disappointed and any winter weather will just be gravy.
 
Larry, I have a question. Do you think if the niña stays or gets stronger from current state, that we could see a cold start to winter, specifically in December? I mean the aleutian ridge going poleward like Anthony masiello has mentioned before?
 
Mr. Golf said:
Larry, I have a question. Do you think if the niña stays or gets stronger from current state, that we could see a cold start to winter, specifically in December? I mean the aleutian ridge going poleward like Anthony masiello has mentioned before?
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Anything's possible, especially for one month, but I'd rather there be an Aleutian trough since that teleconnects with an E US trough. Aleutian ridge teleconnects with a SE ridge. Examples: recent winters.
 
GaWx said:
This is largely thanks to the very warm Indonesian waters and the waters are still very warm with no sign of a cooldown.
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Maybe we need a few large volcanoes to pop off in the tropic regions to reel the heat back in in those parts. Or maybe some volcanoes near the poles wouldn't hurt to build up the cold where it counts. Especially since large volcanoes near the poles tend to be of longer lasting effect than tropical volcanoes.
 
Big surge of cold water in the central ENSO zones. Likely all but confirming the case for a weak Niña into the fall and end of year.

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Fountainguy97 said:
Big surge of cold water in the central ENSO zones. Likely all but confirming the case for a weak Niña into the fall and end of year.

View attachment 46366
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I don’t know about other areas around the SE but the last 2 weak niñas (2016-17 and 2017-18) have brought decent snow to my area - Much better than this past winter. So I’m cautiously looking forward to this.
 
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