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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts

this popped up on my youtube. Have no clue how good the guy is. He is talking mostly about averages.

I can assure you that most of the weather videos that show up on YouTube, produced by people you've never heard of, are crap.
 
I can assure you that most of the weather videos that show up on YouTube, produced by people you've never heard of, are crap.

Notwithstanding that I appreciate and can identify with the winter enthusiasm of these young folks. they're largely crap because they're almost always heavily biased cold and snowy in the Midwest and NE US, where most of these folks live. This one is, not surprisingly, no exception. Let me know when there's one that is warm and with BN snowfall in most of the E half of the US and I'll a) faint; and b) give them kudos for being different.

I'd much prefer to listen to what an unbiased pro met company, like Maxar, has. They're much more interested in accuracy and keep any weenie feelings out of their forecasts.

My latest feelings haven't changed. Whereas a weak La Nina (assuming we have it) isn't itself a warm indicator for the SE (it averages pretty neutral unlike the mean warmth from a mod to strong Nina), the very warm Indonesian waters very much favor warm MJO phases dominating like they have in recent winters. Combine that with a globe that continues to warm, I see no reason to not expect still another solidly AN winter in
the SE US/trend is our friend (or enemy in this case). I still expect, as happens every winter, a good number of cold and snowy winter forecasts because that's what wx hobbyists do.
 
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Notwithstanding that I appreciate and can identify with the winter enthusiasm of these young folks. they're largely crap because they're almost always heavily biased cold and snowy in the Midwest and NE US, where most of these folks live. This one is, not surprisingly, no exception. Let me know when there's one that is warm and with BN snowfall in most of the E half of the US and I'll a) take note; and b) give them kudos for being different.

I'd much prefer to listen to what an unbiased pro met company, like Maxar, has. They're much more interested in accuracy and keep any weenie feelings out of their forecasts.

My latest feelings haven't changed. Whereas a weak La Nina (assuming we have it) isn't itself a warm indicator for the SE (it averages pretty neutral unlike the mean warmth from a mod to strong Nina), the very warm Indonesian waters very much favor warm MJO phases dominating like they have in recent winters. Combine that with a globe that continues to warm, I see no reason to not expect still another solidly AN winter in
the SE US/trend is our friend (or enemy in this case). I still expect, as happens every winter, a good number of cold and snowy winter forecasts because that's what wx hobbyists do.
Given how this year has gone I wouldn't be surprised if we end up near average or slightly below for at least one or two months this winter. I'm feeling like we will be colder and drier than past winters given a more neutral nina.
 
Given how this year has gone I wouldn't be surprised if we end up near average or slightly below for at least one or two months this winter. I'm feeling like we will be colder and drier than past winters given a more neutral nina.
We better get all the snow we can by mid-December.
 
Given how this year has gone I wouldn't be surprised if we end up near average or slightly below for at least one or two months this winter. I'm feeling like we will be colder and drier than past winters given a more neutral nina.
If we can not get snow I'm hoping the entire winter will be a repeat of December 2015. That was a great month.
 
This was from last winter but where does last feb 8-9 tornado outbreak rank at ?
 
This is true. I'm still probably in the minority with this but I'm excited about a potential weak nina or cold neutral. I'd much rather wait on clippers or coastals than see the Rn/sn line sitting in Durham with no shot
I would rather wait on clippers than to spend 4 months with flooding rains.
 
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