This is largely thanks to the very warm Indonesian waters and the waters are still very warm with no sign of a cooldown.
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2020-2021 Winter: Early Thoughts
- Thread starter Fountainguy97
- Start date
This is largely thanks to the very warm Indonesian waters and the waters are still very warm with no sign of a cooldown.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yeah, we're never going to have a decent winter unless that changes.
cd2play
Member
Fixed.
We had one very nice snow event last year despite the crappiest MJO possible and with temps approaching (and making it in areas of NGA) the 100F mark in October so all it takes is one good anomalous event which they all seem to be here in the south lately.
That being said and just short of observing animal behavior and wooly worms (j/k) and certainly not looking at any indices which haven't amounted to squat as far as I am concerned, the summer pattern feels different to me this year being closer to normal heat and not starting early and hopefully not extending well into October like last year. Will it translate to winter? Probably not but I like the seemingly different pattern we have enjoyed this summer. Just the eternal optimist I guess. If you err on the side of heat and lower your expectations, you will likely not be disappointed and any winter weather will just be gravy.
That being said and just short of observing animal behavior and wooly worms (j/k) and certainly not looking at any indices which haven't amounted to squat as far as I am concerned, the summer pattern feels different to me this year being closer to normal heat and not starting early and hopefully not extending well into October like last year. Will it translate to winter? Probably not but I like the seemingly different pattern we have enjoyed this summer. Just the eternal optimist I guess. If you err on the side of heat and lower your expectations, you will likely not be disappointed and any winter weather will just be gravy.
Mr. Golf
Member
Larry, I have a question. Do you think if the niña stays or gets stronger from current state, that we could see a cold start to winter, specifically in December? I mean the aleutian ridge going poleward like Anthony masiello has mentioned before?
Anything's possible, especially for one month, but I'd rather there be an Aleutian trough since that teleconnects with an E US trough. Aleutian ridge teleconnects with a SE ridge. Examples: recent winters.
I’m just going to go on record as saying, I’m excited about winter!
Philstorm91
Member
Maybe we need a few large volcanoes to pop off in the tropic regions to reel the heat back in in those parts. Or maybe some volcanoes near the poles wouldn't hurt to build up the cold where it counts. Especially since large volcanoes near the poles tend to be of longer lasting effect than tropical volcanoes.
Maybe we need blocking and our deep CAD highs in NY and not in SE Canada because those meso highs ain’t it
The legend has returned 
I I actually like it but I don't trust what he says... after what happened last year
Broken024
Member
Broken024
Member
Ban
Lame ?..lol
Can’t be optimistic when the models are showing the pattern we’ve had for the past 4 years this upcoming winter, bad MJO + nina = scorch and onset Wilkes icing events while everyone else has hope to see something with there wet bulb temp
MichaelJ
Member
Going to be a fancraptic winter. It is possible some area of the SE will get a small snow but it does not look good presently
Nothing is stamped in stone. A weak nina could work out if we can get some blocking. I always think of one of my favorite winters 95/96 as an example.
Fountainguy97
Member
Big surge of cold water in the central ENSO zones. Likely all but confirming the case for a weak Niña into the fall and end of year.
avlsnow
Member
I don’t know about other areas around the SE but the last 2 weak niñas (2016-17 and 2017-18) have brought decent snow to my area - Much better than this past winter. So I’m cautiously looking forward to this.