Ostrich December

[Webberweather53]

This map is kinda deceptive. It makes it look like people in Fargo will be wearing shorts and flip flops when their forecast is actually in the mid to upper 30s for this time period. I have to remind myself that bright reds dont necessarily mean warm weather.

By their standards in mid-winter it's a heat wave. I have actually been to Roseau, MN in middle of January and people there actually do wear shorts and roll their windows down when temperatures reach the mid 30s. It was quite a sight to see

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here's the corresponding 48-hour z500 trend.

View attachment 53078


Keep in mind the PNA was already forecast to be strongly positive as it was & we're trending even stronger positive lol

View attachment 53079

Yeah that ridge in the west is trending taller and also getting some AN heights towards Greenland/Baffin bay, maybe we can trend to a nice -NAO ?

 

[Webberweather53]

?

 

[Webberweather53]

Fwiw, on the 12z GFS, nearly every 6 hour panel was below average in Atlanta, GA after 168 hr.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Yeah that ridge in the west is trending taller and also getting some AN heights towards Greenland/Baffin bay, maybe we can trend to a nice -NAO ?

View attachment 53080

I think we really need to trend to a -NAO, or at least get rid of those positive heights south of Greenland. From my take, there's too much low pressure and very little CAD. I don't know, the lower heights look great, but it isn't reflected snow on model maps.

 

[Webberweather53]

I think we really need to trend to a -NAO, or at least get rid of those positive heights south of Greenland. From my take, there's too much low pressure and very little CAD. I don't know, the lower heights look great, but it isn't reflected snow on model maps.

Here's January 2000's z500a

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Interesting to see that TPV retrograde away from Greenland

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I think we really need to trend to a -NAO, or at least get rid of those positive heights south of Greenland. From my take, there's too much low pressure and very little CAD. I don't know, the lower heights look great, but it isn't reflected snow on model maps.

I just have a gut feeling something is brewing first week of December

 

[Ollie Williams]

Here's January 2000's z500a
View attachment 53084

Interesting, do you think that models aren't picking up on mesoscale features that could make the difference in this setup?

 

[SD]

?

View attachment 53081

View attachment 53082

Keep playing that game and we are going to end up with some type of overrunning/stalled Arctic front look

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol is that another Shortwave signal near Baja

 

[Webberweather53]

Interesting, do you think that models aren't picking up on mesoscale features that could make the difference in this setup?

That and there’s so much potential variability in the synoptic pattern and models aren’t properly dispersed to correctly proportion all the potential scenarios or even get the synoptics down right.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Dang this far out the STJ is still pretty good

 

[whatalife]

Dang this far out the the STJ is still pretty good View attachment 53089

Tick-tock! It’s only a matter of time. #ihope


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[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Arcc]

Tick-tock! It’s only a matter of time. #ihope


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True, it’s rained constantly the past two winters, it’s bound to start raining again eventually.

 

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 53091View attachment 53092View attachment 53093

The Korean model nuking Canada with warmth

 

[Ollie Williams]

View attachment 53091View attachment 53092View attachment 53093

That's exactly what I want to see! Lower heights around the northern great plains, and connection to the wave train in the Atlantic!

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Don't we want Canada to be cold and have a lot of snowpack to provide colder air?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Don't we want Canada to be cold and have a lot of snowpack to provide colder air?

Kinda, that's just an excuse we use when the cold air is locked up in Canada. Blocking is used to push the cold air down to us. Better Canada warm while we freeze, vs. the opposite.