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Ostrich December

We're a little early here. It's nice to look at and wish for, but realistically, there's a very low percentage chance for snow outside of the mountains with this pattern. Plus we're still a little early in the season.
 
I mean what the cmc is showing isn’t far off as to what could happen... all the models have been hinting at a pretty significantly deep upper level low and you all know how those can turn out ... deep cold air at all layers .. many people could be up for a flizzard if they can get under that upper low
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I mean what the cmc is showing isn’t far off as to what could happen... all the models have been hinting at a pretty significantly deep upper level low and you all know how those can turn out ... deep cold air at all layers .. many people could be up for a flizzard if they can get under that upper low
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Nobody wants a flizzard. People won't be happy until they are knee deep in snow.
 
Gotta say....the synoptic pattern over the east on the GFS in the early December time period is very.....bizarre to say the least. A massive upper level lobe just gets cut off from the main flow and just meanders. Not sure I've seen anything quite like it before on the models. Flurries and snow showers over much of the western part of the South in association with the cut off ULL.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Gotta say....the synoptic pattern over the east on the GFS in the early December time period is very.....bizarre to say the least. A massive upper level lobe just gets cut off from the main flow and just meanders. Not sure I've seen anything quite like it before on the models. Flurries and snow showers over much of the western part of the South in association with the cut off ULL.
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Flurries and snow showers + plenty of cold air for day after day when you get one of those ?
 
LovingGulfLows said:






This could explain why we could get a very bizarre weather pattern over the CONUS as we move into December.
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This bizarre pattern is mostly due to tropical forcing shifting to 120E + a ton of off-equatorial convection triggered & enhanced by wQBO, +NPMM, etc., which to a small extent the strong polar vortex contributes to via the Brewer-Dobson Circulation
 
wxdaniel said:
It may be a record low, but not by much. Honestly, with the OZN like this. The PV would become more fluid if its trajectory heading into winter.


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I mean a record low is a record low regardless, right? And having a fluid polar vortex in the winter is much better for us than being dominated by ridges. I'll take my chances with an active PV and a relatively active subtropical jet.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The ridge axis on the GEFS over Canada is shifting NW and trending colder + more widespread cold in the south-central US

View attachment 53077
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Here's the corresponding 48-hour z500 trend.

1606152613122.png


Keep in mind the PNA was already forecast to be strongly positive as it was & we're trending even stronger positive lol

1606152644362.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The ridge axis on the GEFS over Canada is shifting NW and trending colder + more widespread cold in the south-central US

View attachment 53077
Click to expand...
This map is kinda deceptive. It makes it look like people in Fargo will be wearing shorts and flip flops when their forecast is actually in the mid to upper 30s for this time period. I have to remind myself that bright reds dont necessarily mean warm weather.
 
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