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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

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models may catch on if low slowly develops in the Atlantic
 
Brent said:
20/40 in the 2am TWO and recon tenatively scheduled Monday

Well that escalated quickly :p
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Not saying it will but i have seen surprise pop up storms that have intensify and ramped up very quickly out of no where
 
GFS para has Don and Emily both by mid-week lol... the model support for the eastern wave east of 95L is growing...
 
So much dry air across the eastern Atlantic. Someone with knowledge please tell me this isn't going to last all season .


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Well I mean it is July still, climo is still very against development out there, I figure things will flip in August but who knows.

Seen hints on the long range models things will get more active at the end of the month.
 
Storm5 said:
So much dry air across the eastern Atlantic. Someone with knowledge please tell me this isn't going to last all season .


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Even though there's a lot of dry air in the eastern Atlantic, it's below-well below climatological normals... IMO, this year is making a statement in this area of the basin in that that the first half of July was dominated exclusively by suppressed MJO pulse passage, the west-central Sahel and eastern Atlantic are still more moist than normal in the low-mid levels, esp near the level of the SAL & AEJ (~ 700mb) and w/ the passage of a very modest CCKW, 2 areas of potential TCG have appeared (yet again?!) in an area of the basin where TCG is usually rare-very rare before early-mid August... Apparently this year has other ideas.
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Here's some hype lol

But webber is right.... its actually not as unfavorable as it usually is in July. Some July's were lucky to even get anything... and the season doesn't really start its peak for another month. I always say the real season is basically August 15-October 15... anything outside that is a bonus...

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tropical-storm-don-forms-near-lesser-antilles-islands

Don is likely to be the second tropical storm to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands this year. According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricanessite, this would be the first year on record for the islands to see two tropical storms before August 1. There were two other years that came close: in 2005, Hurricane Emily passed though the islands on July 14, and the tropical depression that would become Hurricane Dennis passed through on July 4. In 1933, a tropical depression passed though the islands on July 14, and a tropical storm hit on July 25. It should give no one comfort that these were the two busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record!
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Look back and you'll realize today and tomorrow were the days that massive hurricane was showing up for Florida, or NC, or LA, or Mexico on the past truncation GFS. (Go back up to pages 5, 6 and 7 of this thread).
Lesson perhaps:
Take it all with a grain of salt until August ... ;)
 
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I know that this has nothing to do with the Atlantic or US, but how could you not mention this insane and quite rare, fantasy fujiwhara on the ECMWF in the subtropical Northwest Pacific, wherein both TCs develop off of ULLs (which is very rare in of itself)...
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GFS and it's ensembles love an African wave next week that in fantasy land becomes a US threat and some of the ensembles are a significant hurricane we'll see if this is another false storm or not. The euro has also shown some development in prior runs but not today

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Brent said:
GFS and it's ensembles love an African wave next week that in fantasy land becomes a US threat and some of the ensembles are a significant hurricane we'll see if this is another false storm or not. The euro has also shown some development in prior runs but not today

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Things go crank up moving forward . August will be busy

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Storm5 said:
Things go crank up moving forward . August will be busy

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I give it 3 weeks max before the lid comes off... very favorable things are coming, we could even see something next week.

GFS again bullish in the long range with a US threat, there are several very significant hurricanes in the Gulf

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Mentioned in the TWO

A tropical wave, located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible this weekend as it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
0z Euro is now developing the Eastern Atlantic and at 240 hours has a storm approaching Puerto Rico with a good looking pattern to continue west...
 
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Yeah I could actually seeing this panning out w/ a monster CCKW moving into the basin... And of course right at the end of the run, another wave further to the SE tries to get going... Here we go.
 
The CMC is all in for this next wave it seems. Is not backing down.
EDIT: The 12z run also slows it down quite a bit compared to the 00z
 
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Brent said:
12z Euro says nevermind lol
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Large run-run variability will occur when you're dealing w/ TC activity over a week from now, specific NWP solutions don't really matter at this point, but the large-scale environment does... Let's also be reminiscent of the fact that the European has completely whiffed on every eastern MDR TC this season thus far (Don, Two, and Bret) wrt TCG beyond the medium range (3-4 days)... The fact that it showed anything at all, much less attempted to develop 3 TCs, even on one particular run is pretty remarkable
 
Webberweather53 said:
Large run-run variability will occur when you're dealing w/ TC activity over a week from now, specific NWP solutions don't really matter at this point, but the large-scale environment does... Let's also be reminiscent of the fact that the European has completely whiffed on every eastern MDR TC this season thus far (Don, Two, and Bret) wrt TCG beyond the medium range (3-4 days)...
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So well and succinctly said, Webb. ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Large run-run variability will occur when you're dealing w/ TC activity over a week from now, specific NWP solutions don't really matter at this point, but the large-scale environment does... Let's also be reminiscent of the fact that the European has completely whiffed on every eastern MDR TC this season thus far (Don, Two, and Bret) wrt TCG beyond the medium range (3-4 days)... The fact that it showed anything at all, much less attempted to develop 3 TCs, even on one particular run is pretty remarkable
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Yeah, this year it's been pretty bad in consistency. I would say if it shows a storm once, and others show it for longer, it is a possibility.
 
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