Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

[pcbjr]

Interesting Tweet from Ryan Maue (11 hours ago, but at 46 days that's a mere drop in the time bucket).
Personally, hope he and his modeling are correct ...

 

[Storm5]

I see the Gfs has another fantasy storm . Could the Gfs be this seasons CMC????

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[whatalife]

I see the Gfs has another fantasy storm . Could the Gfs be this seasons CMC????

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HAHA! I didn't take you long...


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[whatalife]

FL about to get destroyed on this run


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[Storm5]

FL about to get destroyed on this run


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Hahahah yep with the Atlantic ridge building in it's headed NW

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[whatalife]

Poor Phil


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[ForsythSnow]

Poor Phil


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Also poor me. Never want to see a hurricane while in the Bahamas. Unfortunately, the GFS may be sniffing out another system, or not. Let's monitor this low. It comes off Africa in 60 hours, organizes on 12Z by 150.

 

[Metwannabe]

Also poor me. Never want to see a hurricane while in the Bahamas. Unfortunately, the GFS may be sniffing out another system, or not. Let's monitor this low. It comes off Africa in 60 hours, organizes on 12Z by 150.

It certainly could be sniffing something out again, seems to be doing a decent job of that but then fails by over intensifying them in the LR.... don't forget this is what the GFS showed what is now TD4 @348 just the other day

 

[Storm5]

12z gefs

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[ForsythSnow]

12z gefs

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Gets it going pretty early. Also, look at the last 4 or 5 GEFS runs at least. This one has shown up quite a bit.

 

[whatalife]

12z gefs

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Nice.


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[pcbjr]

FL about to get destroyed on this run


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Lord have mercy.
Past truncation, anyway.
FWIW - the origin of "truncation" is probably apropos in this context: from Latin truncat- ‘maimed,’

 

[accu35]

Throwback Shane days

 

[Storm5]

There are actually a few 12z eps members that try and do something with the wave the Gfs blows up


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[ForsythSnow]

This run is going nuts again. Past truncation it suddenly goes to 992?

 

[pcbjr]

Model speculation, at best - E coast of Fla at 12Z, Gulf at 18Z ...

 

[Storm5]

Lol 18z happy hour special

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[ForsythSnow]

Lol 18z happy hour special

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Yep, keep that storm away from there too at that strength. Don't need a big storm this early. Would likely mean a horrible season.

 

[pcbjr]

Lol 18z happy hour special

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------ man - I was just hitting post on this map when you came through!

 

[pcbjr]