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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

It's amazing we even have a chance for TCG in the far eastern Atlantic (again) given there's a suppressed CCKW passing through (although the MJO is conducive). Shows you how favorable the background state is, and keep in mind we've never had a year produce 2 TCs east of the Antilles before July...
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's amazing we even have a chance for TCG in the far eastern Atlantic (again) given there's a suppressed CCKW passing through (although the MJO is conducive). Shows you how favorable the background state is, and keep in mind we've never had a year produce 2 TCs east of the Antilles before July...
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Maybe this is the year we have that. Not really too much global model support on it, but the Euro yesterday had hinted at it.
 
Just one run of the GFS alone for this wave out there, at that strength. Has had a low, but very weak.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_40.png
 
Per what I am seeing, this system is already off of Africa, and was the one Webber saw was being briefly watched by the NHC. The 18Z brings it now into the Bahamas, with the low being moderately organized by Tuesday.
 
pcbjr said:
Did that with Hermine and Matthew both last year ... :eek::eek:
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Only a few variables, and this storm could skirt the Caribbean, then go into Florida, or up the coast into the Carolinas. Better not keep showing up that strong in future runs. If we get a hurricane that close this early, this season is going to be bad.
 
Pretty close at 18Z. I feel that this system will become Don at this point, or at least a depression. It is very close to the coast this run, and would be bad it it ended up hitting land. And still to think we could see this in July.
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_47.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Pretty close at 18Z. I feel that this system will become Don at this point, or at least a depression. It is very close to the coast this run, and would be bad it it ended up hitting land. And still to think we could see this in July.
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_47.png
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Do not like; do not like; do not like ... too many runs ... too many runs ... too many runs ... :(


and if...if...if...oftentimes the later runs are a bit more west on this kind of set up ... :mad:
 
ForsythSnow said:
Pretty close at 18Z. I feel that this system will become Don at this point, or at least a depression. It is very close to the coast this run, and would be bad it it ended up hitting land. And still to think we could see this in July.
gfs_mslp_wind_seus_47.png
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Wow!!!
 
The ECMWF apparently thinks 94L is going to have company before long... Yet another TC tries to form in the eastern MDR as 94L enters the SW Atlantic... This isn't supposed to happen in early July, if it somehow occurs, it would be the 3rd TC in the eastern MDR this year, and Im pretty sure that would set a record for any season wrt fastest to seeing 3 TCs form east of the Lesser Antilles after potentially setting a record for fastest to 2 TCs east of the Lesser Antilles (assuming 94L develops at least into a tropical depression which seems likely)

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Right on cue, as the upper level circulation anomalies associated with an MJO pulse begins to center itself over the eastern Pacific, it begins to light up in a big way, wouldn't be shocked if the Atlantic decided to follow suit in 2 weeks or so...
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two_pac_5d0.png
 
Pretty impressive flare up in the western Caribbean this morning . Should drift harmlessly off to the west into Mexico
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