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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

Interesting Tweet from Ryan Maue (11 hours ago, but at 46 days that's a mere drop in the time bucket).
Personally, hope he and his modeling are correct ...

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ForsythSnow said:
Also poor me. Never want to see a hurricane while in the Bahamas. Unfortunately, the GFS may be sniffing out another system, or not. Let's monitor this low. It comes off Africa in 60 hours, organizes on 12Z by 150.
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It certainly could be sniffing something out again, seems to be doing a decent job of that but then fails by over intensifying them in the LR.... don't forget this is what the GFS showed what is now TD4 @348 just the other day
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Storm5 said:
Now that would make for a fun vacation


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Yeah for real, seriously though my sister and her family went through Opal in '95 promise you they aren't interesting in another one

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metwannabe said:
Yeah for real, seriously though my sister and her family went through Opal in '95 promise you they aren't interesting in another one

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If anyone has been through one as a tourist/lived through one in their home (much less 5), unless they work for TWC, and if that person wants to do it again, that person is certifiably nuts and really needs to be checked into, and reside in, the Baker Act ward someplace ...
 
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pcbjr said:
If anyone has been through one as a tourist/lived through one in their home (much less 5), unless they work for TWC, and if that person wants to do it again, that person is certifiably nuts and really needs to be checked into, and reside in, the Baker Act ward someplace ...
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Crazy thing though.... my sister took my niece who was about 8 then and they left, headed north to a shelter in Alabama (I think it was Al), and my brother-in-law boarded up the house and stayed behind. My sis said traffic was horrible, the shelters were full and not pleasant and my niece was crying to go home.... my sister said it was so bad she would never leave again.
My brother-in-law didn't get a minutes sleep, said the constant howling, total darkness was so eerie didn't know what things were going to look like when he came outside and he said he would never stay again. Hopefully they don't have to find out just funny how their experiences were fairly traumatic leaving or staying.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Now the Euro is on board...
View attachment 657


As is the parallel Euro
View attachment 658


Handful of EPS members like this wave and wait to develop it until it approaches the antilles...
View attachment 659
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Yeah, I think this will become the next storm, and if the Euro and GFS keep up the intensity, our first hurricane.
pcbjr said:
If anyone has been through one as a tourist/lived through one in their home (much less 5), unless they work for TWC, and if that person wants to do it again, that person is certifiably nuts and really needs to be checked into, and reside in, the Baker Act ward someplace ...
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2004 definitely wasn't good when I lived down there. Very glad Charley missed us, because if it took the path that they expected it to, who knows what could have happened. I definitely would never want to live through another strong tropical storm again. There isn't even anything special about them, unless you are crazy I guess as you said.
 
metwannabe said:
Crazy thing though.... my sister took my niece who was about 8 then and they left, headed north to a shelter in Alabama (I think it was Al), and my brother-in-law boarded up the house and stayed behind. My sis said traffic was horrible, the shelters were full and not pleasant and my niece was crying to go home.... my sister said it was so bad she would never leave again.
My brother-in-law didn't get a minutes sleep, said the constant howling, total darkness was so eerie didn't know what things were going to look like when he came outside and he said he would never stay again. Hopefully they don't have to find out just funny how their experiences were fairly traumatic leaving or staying.
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I remember Opal like it was yesterday . We had over half a foot a rain in like 12 hours. Add to that winds around 50 mph and the tree and power line damage was extensive. Heck of a storm even up this way


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Storm5 said:
The 06z GEFS says pick a route
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One thing to note about that is even though numerous different routes most, with exception of the handful off east coast, are headed to land..... long ways out obviously but certainly could be one to watch
 
metwannabe said:
One thing to note about that is even though numerous different routes most, with exception of the handful off east coast, are headed to land..... long ways out obviously but certainly could be one to watch
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Yep. Not good but as you pointed out a long way to go.


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