• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

I think it is a fantasy storm. If it still shows it (which I doubt it) we may have to keep an eye on it.
 
Snowfan said:
I think it is a fantasy storm. If it still shows it (which I doubt it) we may have to keep an eye on it.
Click to expand...
Lol, its been showing it for about a week now but still stuck in the 300 range.
 
Snowfan said:
I bet it will be gone next run.
Click to expand...
Probably not both GFS and Euro, as well as now 12z gefs show something. Images below from Allan, @raleighwx Twitter

15697328be239d87b01d9c773850a918.jpg
7cc509c64b2100af31aa5eba5de0a5c2.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
I been watching these runs for about a week now, I do believe something will form in gulf but not sure about strength wize
 
Accuweather and few other sites are interested in next weeks potential storm. Something to watch closely around the 19/20th time frame.
 
The last two runs of the EPS fwiw favor a low to form somewhere around the Yucatan 6/18-20 and to then move WNW into MX ~6/22 well south of S TX. OTOH, recent GEFS means have been significantly further north with more members than the EPS suggesting a potential threat to the CONUS. The "Crazy Uncle" (CMC) ens mean implies even more uncertainty with even more spread sort of implying that the NE GOM US coast threat is higher vs what the GEFS suggests and way higher than what the EPS suggests.
 
GaWx said:
The last two runs of the EPS fwiw favor a low to form somewhere around the Yucatan 6/18-20 and to then move WNW into MX ~6/22 well south of S TX. OTOH, recent GEFS means have been significantly further north with more members than the EPS suggesting a potential threat to the CONUS. The "Crazy Uncle" (CMC) ens mean implies even more uncertainty with even more spread sort of implying that the NE GOM US coast threat is higher vs what the GEFS suggests and way higher than what the EPS suggests.
Click to expand...
Welcome to optical tropical weather ... though, Larry, you need no "welcome"!
PS - You could swim the bamboo today ... LOL
Flood Advisory
Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
534 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2017
Alachua FL-
534 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2017
The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
for...
Central Alachua County in northern Florida...
* Until 700 PM EDT
* At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor flooding in
the advisory area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen in
some locations...with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Gainesville and University Of Florida.
Best!
Phil
 
Last edited:
If you look at the end of the HWRF and GFDL models for Calvin in the Pacific, you can see a low spin up in the Pacific, then cross into the Caribbean and become a strong low there. I think this will be our next storm.
 
pcbjr said:
Agree, and you beat me to the punch on the post!
Good work, Mate! :cool:
Phil

PS -
It is the CMC, but it sort of shows the same thing:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2017061312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Click to expand...
Basically the current model analysis shows:
GFS, ECMWF, JMA : Lower Gulf over Yucatan Peninsula, then West to Mexico.
CMC : North Through Yucatan Peninsula to Northern Gulf coast, then Eastward over land.
HWRF and GFDL : Development in Caribbean.
NAVEGEM: Isolated low, but another system comes from Eastern Caribbean and moves up Florida from the south, though weak.

The CMC and GFS has held its solutions pretty well over the past few days, and the Euro favors the GFS track.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Basically the current model analysis shows:
GFS, ECMWF, JMA : Lower Gulf over Yucatan Peninsula, then West to Mexico.
CMC : North Through Yucatan Peninsula to Northern Gulf coast, then Eastward over land.
HWRF and GFDL : Development in Caribbean.
NAVEGEM: Isolated low, but another system comes from Eastern Caribbean and moves up Florida from the south, though weak.

The CMC and GFS has held its solutions pretty well over the past few days, and the Euro favors the GFS track.
Click to expand...
Gonna be an interesting watch for a bit ... awfully early but a lot of suggestions from various sources.

Plenty of source material in the Tropical>Models in Wiki ...

For example: https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/
loop the models by the day - upper left - for an interesting possible scenario ...
 
Last edited:
12z gfs says meh to the gulf system the CMC goes nuts which is nothing new . And the euro takes a weak system into Mexico


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
12z gfs says meh to the gulf system the CMC goes nuts which is nothing new . And the euro takes a weak system into Mexico


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

All in for the crazy uncle...LOL


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top