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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

GFS-PARA is all in for the CMC and NAVGEM as well... Has been for several runs.
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pcbjr said:
NOOOOOoooooooooo ... :(

but looking at everything, that is indeed a reasonable possibility ... :mad:
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Given that the NAVGEM and CMC have maintained stability in the path, and that I would unfortunately rank the CMC and NAVGEM together higher than the GFS itself, I think it will come Northward between your area and New Orleans for a landfalling system. I think that the Gulf could develop the system into a moderate strength tropical storm at most as of now, if the CMC and NAVGEM are right. Or we could go with the Euro and take a low end tropical storm to Mexico then Texas and avoid this. However, who knows because the Euro seems to know tropical systems, but has fallen short before, while the CMC is crazy. The NAVGEM seemed to get Hermine last year if I remember right and maybe Matthew as well, so I would just watch the area for now.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Given that the NAVGEM and CMC have maintained stability in the path, and that I would unfortunately rank the CMC and NAVGEM together higher than the GFS itself, I think it will come Northward between your area and New Orleans for a landfalling system. I think that the Gulf could develop the system into a moderate strength tropical storm at most as of now, if the CMC and NAVGEM are right. Or we could go with the Euro and take a low end tropical storm to Mexico then Texas and avoid this. However, who knows because the Euro seems to know tropical systems, but has fallen short before, while the CMC is crazy. The NAVGEM seemed to get Hermine last year if I remember right and maybe Matthew as well, so I would just watch the area for now.
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Unfortunately - being June - starting to watch like a hawk ... no way yet, obviously, to tell what that "thing" may do, but looking at upper air/ fronts ... I'm thinking early on --- watch out Tall to Cross City for some rain and a bit of wind ... or not. Looks like a right curve of whatever it is or isn't is, would go into the central to NE Gulf as a very possible posibility. My 2¢'s worth of years of Fla gut until models get a better grip ....
 
Looks as if the 18z gfs pulls the moisture up towards NE Gulf, like its trying to form a low.
 
Obviously development is key to track, CMC has a stronger (still fairly weak) and more consolidated system which is more likely to turn poleward and of course weaker system such as the GFS and the Euro west... Just how far north does any low form if/when it does, so many variables but I've seen the CMC over develop systems over the years. I'd like to know how many hurricanes it actually showed last year b/c if memory serves it was numerous and most didn't occur but hey even a broke clock is right twice a day, never know.
 
metwannabe said:
Obviously development is key to track, CMC has a stronger (still fairly weak) and more consolidated system which is more likely to turn poleward and of course weaker system such as the GFS and the Euro west... Just how far north does any low form if/when it does, so many variables but I've seen the CMC over develop systems over the years. I'd like to know how many hurricanes it actually showed last year b/c if memory serves it was numerous and most didn't occur but hey even a broke clock is right twice a day, never know.
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It was literally like one every run last summer. With that said the Gfs and euro have had runs over the last few days with northern track. Gfs para also has a Cmc like solution . No I'm not giving the Cmc any credit , just discussing


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Storm5 said:
It was literally like one every run last summer. With that said the Gfs and euro have had runs over the last few days with northern track. Gfs para also has a Cmc like solution . No I'm not giving the Cmc any credit , just discussing


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Agreed, speculation is about all we have at the moment, models will, as usual, be all over the place until something actually forms... kudos to the GFS though been hinting at this for over a week now
 
ForsythSnow said:
Never thought I would see the day the GFS caves to the CMC on a tropical system.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_17.png
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Haha yeah the Cmc was the first to show this solution and now the Gfs and Gfs para show the same solution just not as strong . Will be interesting to see what the euro and eps do. They both want no part of a northern solution


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12z gefs likes the idea of northern track

Oddly enough the Canadian ensembles seem to like central gulf the a hard right


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pcbjr said:
FWIW ...
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The way he worded it makes it sound like it is one run, when in reality it has been like that for 4 days in a row for almost all runs.
Storm5 said:
12z eps
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I bet those have been coming North the last few days. Have to keep watching them. If they go for the East Gulf I would laugh because the Canadian would then be right.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The way he worded it makes it sound like it is one run, when in reality it has been like that for 4 days in a row for almost all runs.

I bet those have been coming North the last few days. Have to keep watching them. If they go for the East Gulf I would laugh because the Canadian would then be right.
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Some folks, me thinks, would leave Santa Clause sour milk and stale cookies, and then complain about what was left underneath the tree ... ;)
 
FFC mentioned the area in the Western Caribbean.

Typical variability, especially for this time of year, seen
throughout the long term. Given weak high pressure across the area
with a bit more volatility aloft, we will likely see some scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Current thinking is a bit more
activity across the north as a front approaches with better trough
inflection by late afternoon/evening. Would not be surprised to
see some initiation toward the southeast as well with any
sea breeze convergence (if it is able to get far enough inland).
We will see the probability of precipitation increase by later in
the evening into the overnight as the dynamics improve. This trend
will continue into Monday with better coverage anticipated as the
trough aloft edges further toward the east coast with the surface
boundary nearing.

While most models are illustrating a front approaching during the
beginning of the work week, they are all showing different solutions
in terms of duration. ECM is trying to sweep the front through
fairly quickly Tuesday into Tuesday night, while the GFS is a bit
slower of a solution...not quite swinging it through until Wednesday
before eventually washing out to the south. Given the GFS timing,
duration and upper level flow pattern, it is picking up a
tropical wave in the Gulf Coast region and lifting it north by
mid week. This would mean adequate advection of moisture across
portions of the southeast. The GEM is also showing a similar
solution. Meanwhile, the ECM has the wave approaching TX. This is
an area to watch with a good amount of uncertainty this far out.
 
Fwiw which isn't much here is the 18z NAM with the gulf system taking it NW . You can see the approaching front how the two interact is anyone's guess at this point
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Storm5 said:
Fwiw which isn't much here is the 18z NAM with the gulf system taking it NW . You can see the approaching front how the two interact is anyone's guess at this point
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Lol beat me to it. However, here is a wind map. Most definitely it could be anyone's guess. The NAVGEM has been a bit more westward lately, so maybe realistically it could go west?
namconus_mslp_wind_seus_53.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol beat me to it. However, here is a wind map. Most definitely it could be anyone's guess. The NAVGEM has been a bit more westward lately, so maybe realistically it could go west?
namconus_mslp_wind_seus_53.png
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Yeah it definitely looked to be headed towards a euro solution that run BUt it's the NAM and the NAM and tropical systems don't go together .


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18z Gfs and para Gfs are still night and day different from the euro and eps. Something has to give . Also for those wanting rain in the southeast from this IF its the northern track we are gonna need the front to slow way down or it's gonna be a hard hook to the right


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Storm5 said:
18z Gfs and para Gfs are still night and day different from the euro and eps. Something has to give . Also for those wanting rain in the southeast from this IF its the northern track we are gonna need the front to slow way down or it's gonna be a hard hook to the right


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if it gets a name ... slow down - this pour soul doesn't need a hard hook to the right this year ... :confused:
 
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that an area of disturbed weather
associated with a tropical wave is located about 1800 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands. This disturbance has become
better organized today, and additional development is possible
during the next day or two before conditions become less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to continue
moving toward the west at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Surface pressures are falling in the western Caribbean Sea and
the areal coverage of the disturbed weather has continued to
increase. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the south central Gulf of
Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are
likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan
Peninsula and western Cuba during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Avila
 
00z NAM takes the " system " further north this run. Of course using the NAM for tropical guidance is like using the JMA for winter weather forecasting .

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00z Gfs brings it north and lets it drift along the northern gulf coast


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