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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

Haha Boston to Mexico
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Let's not forget the euro and its ensembles are not interested . Yes the Gfs sniffed out 94l first BUT the euro and its ensembles were correct in not developing it. So Im still very hesitant with the Gfs and gefs


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Storm5 said:
Let's not forget the euro and its ensembles are not interested . Yes the Gfs sniffed out 94l first BUT the euro and its ensembles were correct in not developing it. So Im still very hesitant with the Gfs and gefs


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For me, this is the tiebreaker. If the storm develops and becomes at least a tropical storm, the Euro loses, and the GFS and CMC get the development win. If not, then the Euro wins.
 
ForsythSnow said:
For me, this is the tiebreaker. If the storm develops and becomes at least a tropical storm, the Euro loses, and the GFS and CMC get the development win. If not, then the Euro wins.
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Its a win, win situation Lol.
 
ForsythSnow said:
For me, this is the tiebreaker. If the storm develops and becomes at least a tropical storm, the Euro loses, and the GFS and CMC get the development win. If not, then the Euro wins.
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But my point is when the gfs and gefs were falsely developing 94l the euro and eps were being completely ignored when they showed no development ( which turns out to be correct ) . Sure the Gfs sniffed the wave out first but the Gfs seems to be having issues so far this year with over development. Id rather guidance be correct or at least in the damn ballpark with development vs just being first to latch onto a wave and end up being horrible wrong with development .


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Storm5 said:
But my point is when the gfs and gefs were falsely developing 94l the euro and eps were being completely ignored when they showed no development ( which turns out to be correct ) . Sure the Gfs sniffed the wave out first but the Gfs seems to be having issues so far this year with over development. Id rather guidance be correct or at least in the damn ballpark with development vs just being first to latch onto a wave and end up being horrible wrong with development .


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True. Meanwhile, the GFS and CMC are much further south and weaker this run, now scraping South America. Quite a drastic change.
 
ForsythSnow said:
True. Meanwhile, the GFS and CMC are much further south and weaker this run, now scraping South America. Quite a drastic change.
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If and until something actually forms, models are going to be guessing all over the place, IMHO ....

By way of a micro-example (though not the best analogy, mind you), we're supposed to have a 30% chance of "spotty showers" today, and it is a dark as dusk and sounds like D-Day ...
 
Every gfs run, has been different. One thing for sure is that its high on heels for the windward islands into Caribbeans
 
Gfs has a beast for a storm. Watch this one very close. One of those situation where either it rides up the east coast or slides right into the eastern Gulf. Not wishcasting just seen this movie before
 
I have a suspicion about why the Euro (EPS) is not developing it while the ukmet & GFS (GEFS) are. Consider how different are the EPS and GEFS MJO forecasts right now. There are often differences but this case is larger than normal I think. The EPS usually ends up verifying more closely to reality though it will often end up somewhere in between when there are large differences. The GEFS has it staying inside the circle in phase 2 (nearly stationary) before eventually doing an unusual backtrack (clockwise rotation on the graph) toward phase 1. OTOH, the EPS has it rotating in the common counterclockwise direction into phase 3 very quickly followed by phases 4 & 5. The Ukmet, which goes out only 6 days, is in agreement with the GFS in leaving it nearly stationary for those 6 days. The JMA is closer to the GEFS/UKMET fwiw.
So, maybe this is the main reason why the Euro is out on its own right now with nondevelopment. Is it more likely to bust badly in this case or is it more likely to win this time? This is a tough one but the GEFS having the Ukmet in its camp for development as well as the MJO over the next 6 days at least makes me leery about going with the Euro despite it often doing best with the MJO.
 
From elsewhere, I just read that the Ukmet and even the TC happy CMC have at least scaled back speed of development at 12Z. Hmm, this is a really tough one. But this disagreement is imo what makes forecasting TCs extra interesting. If models always agreed, the forecasting discussion would imo be far less interesting since there'd be no challenge.
 
As I said, this is a real tough call. One additional thing to keep in mind is mid July climatology, which normally doesn't favor a lot of activity. Yes, the MDR is far more favorable than average for July, including very warm SSTs. The waves have been far more impressive than average and we even had a rare early July TD well out there. But long term climo is still pretty quiet at this time of year way out there.
Another thing to consider: although the Euro often overstrengthens TCs once it shows geneses, it often is too gunshy on showing geneses. Could that be the case here?
 
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