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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

ForsythSnow said:
It looks to be turning North at 252.
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Yeah that massive trough will snag it
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Storm5 said:
Yeah that massive trough will snag it
0037b43b8d69b5beaacca6db0153d4ae.png



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Yep huge weakness in the high this time so it will turn north, good thing is verbatim more land interaction around Cuba so a tad weaker but again it's way out there. Also certainly could ramp up as it heads into the GOM...
 
metwannabe said:
Yep huge weakness in the high this time so it will turn north, good thing is verbatim more land interaction around Cuba so a tad weaker but again it's way out there. Also certainly could ramp up as it heads into the GOM...
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Yeah it's hooking hard to the NE . Yesterday the Gfs took it over the highest peaks in Cuba and PR and still managed to blow it up in the gulf. Not this run though


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Storm5 said:
Yeah it's hooking hard to the NE . Yesterday the Gfs took it over the highest peaks in Cuba and PR and still managed to blow it up in the gulf. Not this run though


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Yeah looks like TS maybe into panhandle of Fl.... big take away consistency in a system this far out
 
12z gefs ..... here she comes
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Fairly low latitude. Would be interesting to see how many storms with a low latitude have made a US landfall in the month of July

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Storm5 said:
12z gefs ..... here she comes
be1647d6793c0730399bbd631d121d53.png

bf883a49ecbd159a2e2e53a5fc6b22d5.png

8cab816be58abccc1fd555f898eeb4cb.png

Fairly low latitude. Would be interesting to see how many storms with a low latitude have made a US landfall in the month of July

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I may be wrong but I believe Hurricane Emily in 2005 was that far south and became a monster
Yep...
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The 00z eps members that were showing life gave up on the 12z run. I found one member that was the little engine that could but found that he can't


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Storm5 said:
The 00z eps members that were showing life gave up on the 12z run. I found one member that was the little engine that could but found that he can't


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Nothing to see there. Time to move along. LOL


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whatalife said:
Nothing to see there. Time to move along. LOL


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There was a time not too long ago I would completely agree with you but seems this year the GFS has done a better job of sniffing out something in the long range, now once it does so it's all over the place but wouldn't write it off just yet. Of course the wave in question is still over Africa soooooo :confused::p Lol
 
metwannabe said:
There was a time not too long ago I would completely agree with you but seems this year the GFS has done a better job of sniffing out something in the long range, now once it does so it's all over the place but wouldn't write it off just yet. Of course the wave in question is still over Africa soooooo :confused::p Lol
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Yeah. I agree 100% with this. Will be fun to see who wins this one.


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metwannabe said:
There was a time not too long ago I would completely agree with you but seems this year the GFS has done a better job of sniffing out something in the long range, now once it does so it's all over the place but wouldn't write it off just yet. Of course the wave in question is still over Africa soooooo :confused::p Lol
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I agree. The GFS is 4/5 on storm sniffing this year, which is far better than it was a few years ago. So much for big issues with the upgrade from what I can see. The Euro does good at shooting stuff down, and hasn't done that well this year. Until TD4 dissipates, it hasn't won a storm.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I agree. The GFS is 4/5 on storm sniffing this year, which is far better than it was a few years ago. So much for big issues with the upgrade from what I can see. The Euro does good at shooting stuff down, and hasn't done that well this year. Until TD4 dissipates, it hasn't won a storm.
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Now when it comes to sniffing out winter storms it will be like your avatar just picking it's nose... Lol
 
pcbjr said:
Too nutty ... :confused:
In all seriousness, the GFS is "bird dogging" something - which is not good, but better we watch now rather than succumb to mid-summer doldrums, should a covey flush ...
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Yep!


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