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Tropical Eta

Meteorologist1999 said:
What could this mean going forward anyone?
Click to expand...
The escape is blocked and with the ridge to the north it would likely start a leak back toward the US. That being said, until we get a landfall and a a clear answer on what happens to the center or if there is a new center reforming off shore along with a clearer picture on the upper low near Florida the models are just fun things to look at
 
SD said:
The escape is blocked and with the ridge to the north it would likely start a leak back toward the US. That being said, until we get a landfall and a a clear answer on what happens to the center or if there is a new center reforming off shore along with a clearer picture on the upper low near Florida the models are just fun things to look at
Click to expand...
Scary thought could be if you have an upper level low east of Florida an upper trough coming down in the south plains could create ideal ventilation for the gulf.
 
Wonder which will come 1st. We'll know the winner of the potus election or the last advisory on ETA? 2020 is the year that keeps on giving. Got a hunch we will be sitting here a week from today still trying to figure out the answer to both. Hedge your bets.
 
Recon is finally going to investigate the storm.
941
URNT15 KNHC 021934
AF305 0329A ETA HDOB 01 20201102
192530 3024N 08855W 0262 ///// 0250 +259 -025 000000 000 /// /// 23
192600 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0250 +290 -026 000000 000 /// /// 23
192630 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0250 +290 -025 000000 000 /// /// 23
192700 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0250 +285 -027 000000 000 /// /// 23
192730 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0250 +286 -031 000000 000 /// /// 23
192800 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0250 +290 -030 000000 000 /// /// 23
192830 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0251 +283 -030 000000 000 /// /// 23
192900 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0250 +280 -029 000000 000 /// /// 23
192930 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0250 +284 -027 000000 000 /// /// 23
193000 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0250 +288 -027 000000 000 /// /// 23
193030 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0251 +290 -026 000000 000 /// /// 23
193100 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0260 +290 -024 000000 000 /// /// 23
193130 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0263 +290 -022 000000 000 /// /// 23
193200 3024N 08855W 0263 ///// 0261 +290 -021 000000 000 /// /// 23
193230 3024N 08855W 0263 ///// 0259 +290 -020 000000 000 /// /// 23
193300 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0255 +290 -019 000000 000 /// /// 23
193330 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0252 +290 -016 000000 000 /// /// 23
193400 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0255 +290 -015 000000 000 /// /// 23
193430 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0257 +285 -017 000000 000 /// /// 23
193500 3024N 08855W 0264 ///// 0260 +285 -018 000000 000 /// /// 23
$$
 
What makes an already ominous setup even more ominous for much of Central America are the already very wet soils from earlier tropical, monsoonal, and other activity the last few months in the same area:

These are from 7 PM last night, which means before the effects of Eta...look at all of that dark green: :eek:
bA4B9qX.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Wonder which will come 1st. We'll know the winner of the potus election or the last advisory on ETA? 2020 is the year that keeps on giving. Got a hunch we will be sitting here a week from today still trying to figure out the answer to both. Hedge your bets.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately I think you might be right
 
SD said:
The escape is blocked and with the ridge to the north it would likely start a leak back toward the US. That being said, until we get a landfall and a a clear answer on what happens to the center or if there is a new center reforming off shore along with a clearer picture on the upper low near Florida the models are just fun things to look at
Click to expand...
Man if it was December and we had a nice trough to phase with this, we’d be licking our chops
 
GaWx said:
What makes an already ominous setup even more ominous for much of Central America are the already very wet soils from earlier tropical, monsoonal, and other activity the last few months in the same area:

These are from 7 PM last night, which means before the effects of Eta...look at all of that dark green: :eek:
bA4B9qX.png
Click to expand...
Yeah, these storms can kill thousands down there. The mudslides will be terrible. And now this thing is projected to come close to attaining cat 5 status to boot. It’s going to be really bad...
 
Massive issues with recon as well, several canceled flights today and it appears the one that finally got off is returning....might be time to invest in 3-4 new top aircraft.
 
Downeastnc said:
Massive issues with recon as well, several canceled flights today and it appears the one that finally got off is returning....might be time to invest in 3-4 new top aircraft.
Click to expand...

Someone at another BB said this:
"The NHC needs to send out another recon plane ASAP. It’s been hours since we’ve had direct data, and they need to know its exact intensity for warnings."

Here was my response:
"Can't they already tell enough from satellite/microwave data that it is an extremely powerful storm without needing to see the direct data for appropriate warnings? I would also love to see the recon data and hope they get in there before landfall so we have the most accurate record possible for this storm, but how critical is it now for warnings, especially since the NHC has already acknowledged that it is a beast that will get even stronger (150)? How much difference it is going to make for warnings if it ends up being 160 or even 175 mph?"

I later added this:
"Not having recon in Eta right now doesn't, itself, increase the danger to Central America. They already know it will be a near worst case scenario, which the NHC is already forecasting."
 
It’s like all the sudden the storm has just went completely bonkers (eye clearing/tall convection/expanding deep CDO), and I thought it was doing so earlier, imo that’s over a cat 5
 
Time to call what recon finds. I’m gonna say 205mph at 880mb.


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A plane finally is on the way after all the troubles earlier. Sure we didn't have data sooner but the safety of the crew is more important than the data.

Regarding the storm, the HWRF initializes in the low 930s and 920s range so I expect these pressures. Given the tiny eye and icy cloud ring, I would not be surprised to see a cat 5 or 180 mph with pressures nearing 900 at the worst.

Edit: looking at the last frame there appears to be even colder cloud tops wrapping in now. This could be insane to watch.
 
Just checked out the IR of Eta, was too busy to earlier today (making a new dessert that we're about to try) but just did so.

JEEZ
 
Not quite as clean looking as Patricia so maybe 180ish.


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Find it hard to imagine this is not a160-180 mph cane right now....the presentation is just classic....need that recon so 2020 officially has a Cat 5....
 
Any guesses on pressure the plane finds......maybe 900-910....seems like sub 920 for sure NHC went 150mph 934mbin its update
 
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