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Tropical Eta

GaWx

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No rest for the very weary! Invest 96L, currently near the LAs has been "birthed". This could end up a very big deal in early Nov for C America, the US, and/or Cuba/Bahamas eventually:

1604020760949.png


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta, located over the western Atlantic
Ocean off of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states.

1. A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser
Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
expected to become more conducive for development of this
disturbance during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean
Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

*Corrected regarding initial position. I'm exhausted. When will this activity finally slow down?
 
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So many possibilities with this one

Only thing for sure it'll be named Eta
 
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The 0z gfs buried in into Central America

Shower activity associated with a large area of disturbed weather
over the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean Sea has become a
little more concentrated this evening. Conditions are expected to
be conducive for development of this disturbance during the next
few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time
the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
If it gets strong early it would come more northward.


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00z GFS avoids a Central America landfall and is heading north at hour 156. Will be interesting to see where this run ends up.D2ACE978-7BAC-43CA-AEBE-312D729DA997.png
 
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