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Tropical Eta

deltadog03 said:
That would hurt a bit. Problem is, the pattern is ripe for it to happen
Click to expand...
After 11 landfalls this season, and a couple hurricanes the last few weeks, the last thing we need is a 12th one that hits Florida. Up here we definitely don't need more tropical rain after having rain from at least 2 of them this month.
 
deltadog03 said:
That would hurt a bit. Problem is, the pattern is ripe for it to happen
Click to expand...

That is Zeta but with a 3X larger wind field and 150 miles further east.....really the worse case for that system, a hybrid massive gale center deepening as it races up 200 miles inland of the east coast. This would literally put the power out to 10's of millions of people I bet....
 

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TD likely coming

A vigorous tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce organized cloudiness and thunderstorms, and a
tropical depression appears to be forming. If this recent
development trend continues, then advisories will likely be
initiated on this disturbance this afternoon or evening while the
system moves generally westward at about 15 mph toward the western
Caribbean Sea.
 
Euro is going to have something post 180 hours. Baggy upper low in the central gulf and a 1000mb system near Jamaica it's not 96L i don't think
 
The EPS is all over the place from getting into the Pacific to threatening the Southeast...received_794758307980112.jpeg
 
205124_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

After that time, however, there is
significant divergence in the models. For example, the ECWMF and
its ensemble members continue on a faster westward motion across
Central America, while the GFS and its ensemble members stall the
system over the western Caribbean Sea through day 5. Given this
discrepancy, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on
days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone's center slowly across
northern Nicaragua, more or less in line with the multi-model
consensus aids. This forecast is of generally low confidence,
however, and significant changes could be required in later advisory
packages depending on model trends.
 
tonight's GFS on Florida's doorstep in a week's time

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_30.png

Then it turns westward into the Gulf.. because why not at this point

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_35.png

Lol this run is gonna be close to hitting Louisiana gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_38.png

Recurves into the Panhandle due to the Arctic front

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_44 (1).png
 
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