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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Jessy89 said:
I’ve been seen that and still thinking it hits far west Louisiana.


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the longer it stays on the northern edge of guidance the less likely western La. gets the eye. It's about to cross 25 n lat. well ahead of guidance
 
Jessy89 said:
Where you leaning towards landfall at?


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Pea ridge and Accu 35 seem to have it right to me . it's got to vary off the projected trajectory at this point to hit west of cerntral La. I 've seen these storms do crazier thing many times though!
 
I see what appears to be the remnants of Marco sliding west just off the sw La coast...I wonder , as insignificant as it is, if it might affect the track of Laura?
 
Worth noting the HMON and HWRF are showing the effects of the shear when it gets close to the coast and keeping it idle. Once it hits that shear it shouldn't strengthen much at all if not weaken a little.
 
I think the NHC has this pretty well pegged as far as the track, I still think it will come in at 935mb just east of the TX/La border with winds of 135. remember how fast Camille blew up overnight although most here probably weren't alive then.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Are you thinking right shifts to the track are incoming?
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I don't know if the NHC would change much yet without model support. the only 18z Hires I've seen is the nam3km. It actually tracks more west.
Who knows, may be right,? But as of right now there is a pretty big western shift needed to make up for lost time.
 
Will Rossman said:
I wonder if the remnants of Marco aren't creating a weakness near western LA pulling Laura in that direction. Also the Bermuda ridge that's supposed to keep her on a WNW track may not be quite as strong, which would have huge implications for southern Louisiana.
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Shes
NWMSGuy said:
Are you thinking right shifts to the track are incoming?
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Yes i do if I may say. Probably central/east Louisiana is my guess but again I can be wrong
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
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Winds up to 80 mph.
 
As an FYI for everyone potentially affected post hurricane...the further west it goes, the further north from a latitude standpoint it will gain. Why the track went back north post tropical on the NHC update.
 
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